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Remind me to check my currencies.
Better fit, low end supported by a buyout.
http://backpack.tf/item/4627648876
Professional now, but wasn't for all sales.
Sale, 5/15-5/16:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197973696367#!/compare/1463270400/1463356800
Steam community market sale, was non-pro. Undetermined, since no one has one listed, so I can't check value on old sales.
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Blitzkrieg%20Pistol%20%28Minimal%20Wear%29
B/o prior to market sale was 40 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28133139
http://backpack.tf/item/4616799140
Non-professional.
Sale, 3/03 (old):
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008747683#!/compare/1456992000/1457251200
= 40 keys
http://backpack.tf/item/4622048188
Professional.
Sale, 6/01 (Specialized at the time!):
Buyer side:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970466472#!/compare/1464652800/1464825600
Much less clear.
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116351896#!/compare/1464739200/1464912000
= 42 keys
(Obtained together, sort by time:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116351896?time=1464912000 )
Sale, 5/20:
Buyer side:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116351896#!/compare/1463616000/1463788800
Not involved, buyer side: Spec S. Festive Flame, S. KS Festive Shotgun
Not involved, seller side: Soldier gear, Aussie Blutsauger, 2 keys
Sold for:
Professional Aussie Frontier Justice (~11-12, sellers at 11.4/11.8/12, buyers at 11.07/11.07/11.05/11)
Strange Spec KS AWPer Hand (~6, sellers at 5.95/6/6/6/etc., buyers at 5.61/5.6/5.58/etc.)
3 keys
= 20.5, rounding to 21 keys (outlier)
Sale, 5/18-5/19:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1463529600/1463616000
Was using in my suggestion for the dahlia, but since it was an outlier there, and the counter that passed ignored it... here it is basically copy pasted.
+Energy Orb MW Black Dahlia (38-42)
+Aussie Black Box (17, nice parts but don't really matter)
+S Pro Machina (~11-12, buyer/seller 10.5/12, SCM ~$25-32, or ~9-13 keys)
http://i.imgur.com/8BbAL1C.png
+Pro Big Kill (~7, sellers at 7.25+, four buyers at 6.7+)
http://i.imgur.com/QQpcMVa.png
Total: 77.5 keys
FOR
-Logo Cold Killer (33-40, http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57624297c440455ade68f751 )
-Misty Skull Scotch Bonnet (56.5, suggestion backpack.tf/suggestion/5761c682c4404534f17c56a8 )
-Isotope MW Blitzkrieg Pistol
Total: 93 keys + pistol
= -15 keys
I'm comfortable calling this an outlier.
Sale, 4/06-4/10:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123100066#!/compare/1459728000/1460246400
SCM, unknown
http://backpack.tf/item/4503786412
Sale, 3/10ish:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067835901#!/compare/1457251200/1459296000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096025374#!/compare/1458284400/1459555200
Looks like SCM, and unknown either way.
Current listings: One has been up on classifieds at 28 for 19 days now, and outpost intermittently for the same amount of time:
Outpost:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28313464
Classified:
http://i.imgur.com/b64eCQP.png
Not capping at this, mostly just because search functions for unusual weapons are still terrible everywhere.
Summary: 1 sale at 42 pure, supporting older sale at 40 pure, outlier at 21, and the one with the Dahlia. One reasonably-old buyout at 28 keys.
Since we're done with the Summer Sale and the Matchmaking update is finally happening, I'd like to give this a bit to see what happens with that listed one. Also, if anyone wants to look and see whether there are others of this that I missed, please do, but I didn't notice any additional sales on the items here that I'd found for the earlier version of this suggestion.
Update: The pistol that was listed at 28 keys sold twice this past week.
Item history: http://backpack.tf/item/4514543070
PISTOL SALE 1: Pro FT Isotope Masked Mender + Pro Blutsauger Kit (~3 keys at the time based on SCM)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099991573#!/compare/1468368000/1468454400
Estimate Mender at around 35-45 keys based on sales below. Sale is likely to cap at 28, since no unusual medi guns are listed at below 29 on classifieds or outpost, and the quickbuyer price on any generic unusual medi gun is 25 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28272545
Can't tell what the person who accepted the mender sold it for, unfortunately.
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007858078#!/compare/1468368000/1468540800
Buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007858078#!/compare/1468368000/1468540800
Still, if someone does want to try and track down a proper price for the Mender, here are a few possibilities:
Lots of the menders around, but not many sales this year.
One moved in June, looks like a big market dump:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086424277#!/compare/1465344000/1465430400
One sold in May, for another unusual medi gun plus stuff:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060486675#!/compare/1463184000/1463270400
~35 keys
Another sale, a day later: Sold w/ DP Killer Exclusive (~55) + 5 keys for Blizz Brown Bomber (outdated, using DedAndrei's buyout at 95)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060486675#!/compare/1463270400/1463529600
~40-55 keys, but pretty old
Another sale, April: 1:1 with otherwise-identical Energy Orb
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052793694#!/compare/1460246400/1460419200
PISTOL SALE 2: Not clear.
Buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128149670#!/compare/1466812800/1468800000
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099991573#!/compare/1468454400/1468540800
Long story short, looks like yes, it did sell at around 28, item value was probably higher than that but capped by the buyout.