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Strange Soldier's Stogie
These sales.
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Soldier%27s%20Stogie
Ignoring the sales under $4 as they're probably from buy orders.
http://puu.sh/q3LqK.png calculations and key conversion, USD of course
Taking 2.6-3 keys. Not much that points to the $9 sale being an outlier.