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My first of these, yaaaaay
SALES:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754#!/compare/1470787200/1470873600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119391986#!/compare/1470787200/1470873600
Sold for Burning Pirate Bandana (Open suggestion at 205)
= 205
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028366833#!/compare/1468627200/1469750400
Uhhhhh
There's also the two sales from the previous suggestion, which are both kiiiiinda bulky so I'm ruling them out, but they roughly support this value.
Let it ride.