COUNTER. I don't like seeing Unusuals underpriced. :(

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57b2722ac440451d506e2f84

Sales are at 11, 11, 12, and 15 keys. The sale at 15 keys was deemed an OUTLIER. This is not the case. The 15 key sale is not an outlier, but the 11 key sales are.

Why the 11 key sales are outliers:

http://i.imgur.com/lZLQjLj.png

Buyers up to 11 keys in classifieds.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26684802

Buyer has a buy price at 12 keys here. However they (apparently) declined buying one at 12 keys so they're basically another buyer who doesn't follow their own prices (apparently). I can't really say for sure but they never ended up buying off that person. So this will be excluded.

http://i.imgur.com/ACyAHSe.png

On SCM buy orders are up to $29-$31.37 (the buyer pays a value of about 11.5-12.5 keys @ $2.49 per key). In addition, most sales for Unusual Ballcaps don't fall below $40 (~16 keys).

http://i.imgur.com/maj75x0.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28305826

Lowest seller is selling at 15 keys (DECLINED an offer of a Purple Fetti Panama, recently updated at 14 keys)

http://i.imgur.com/aaio9HR.png

On the Ballcap pricelist there is a big gap between the bottom two prices (Smoking and Nuts). Smoking being priced at 16-18 keys, and Nuts being priced at 11-12 keys. That's about a 32% difference in value between the bottom two effects, and these are fairly common hats with 30+ in existence for each. It's inconsistent.

With the 11 key sales excluded from the range, the range is 12-15 keys.