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Cock back my tongue like a hammer.
My head is like a nickel-plated bammer.
Huh, that's odd. The last suggestion, which was yesterday, didn't include the seller at 1.9 keys even if it's been unsold for 2 weeks.
Sellers at 1.9 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28377619 - 2 weeks
Classifieds at the time of posting:
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Dough+Puncher&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1 -> http://i.imgur.com/WK1Dk9m.png
x2 at 1.9 keys
http://backpack.tf/item/2550217414 (super young, but it's the same as the 2 week old Outpost seller)
http://backpack.tf/item/5046029972 (1 day)
x2 at 2 keys
http://backpack.tf/item/2391448567 (over 2 weeks, free paint)
http://backpack.tf/item/2357352071 (2 weeks)
Conclusion:
SCM and 2 week unsolds at the current price (1 with free black paint, even) support the drop. Taking 1.9 keys as the new price.
Additional/Supportive and Counter Evidence is always appreciated.
Discovery out ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ノ