Sale 1:

Sold for Green Confetti Hat to Kill For (Suggestion at 20.5)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108858565#!/compare/1468886400/1468972800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184836046#!/compare/1468886400/1468972800

X = 21

Sale 2:

Sold for Steaming Connoisseur’s Cap (14.5) + 3 keys + ~4 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28307276 - B/O of 21

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139516165#!/compare/1467417600/1467504000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096120367#!/compare/1467417600/1467504000

X = 21 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for 19 keys (according to buyer’s perspective)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28417635 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1471564800/1471651200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197992102312#!/compare/1471564800/1471651200

X = 19

Sale 4:

Sold for Strange Festive Medigun (17)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28377732 - B/O of 19

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144082949#!/compare/1471478400/1471824000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071307854#!/compare/1471651200/1471824000

X = 17

Sale 5:

Quicksold for 16 keys + ~1 key in items (according to buyer’s perspective)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28309291 - B/O of 19

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096120367#!/compare/1467504000/1467590400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120382814#!/compare/1467504000/1467590400

X = 17

Sale 6:

Sold for Smoking Conjurer’s Cowl (Suggestion at 17)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28414709 - B/O of 21

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138671383#!/compare/1471046400/1471132800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1471046400/1471132800

X = 17

Sale 7:

Sold for 16 keys in about 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28300600 - B/O of 16, declined 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085691904#!/compare/1467331200/1467504000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139516165#!/compare/1467417600/1467504000

X = 16

Sale 8:

Quicksold for 15 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077306851#!/compare/1470960000/1471046400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124721761#!/compare/1470960000/1471046400

X = 15

Sale 9:

Quicksold for 14 keys?

No (recent) outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125878513#!/compare/1468886400/1468972800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067291584#!/compare/1468800000/1468886400

X = 14

Sale 10:

Sold for Overclocked Private eye + 1 key

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286389869#!/compare/1467676800/1467763200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060381147#!/compare/1467590400/1467676800

Can be used to price the Private Eye

Sale 11:

Sold with minor items for Planets Gilded Guard + Disco Beat Down Janissary Ketche

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086948995#!/compare/1468454400/1468540800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108858565#!/compare/1468540800/1468713600

Excluding this sale as I cannot find a B/O. Without the B/O, this item would likely exceed 30 keys, which is too high.

Sale 12:

Sold for Smoking Hetman’s + Killstreak Overpriced Sniper Rifle

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176817282#!/compare/1470960000/1471046400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077306851#!/compare/1470960000/1471046400

Excluding the sale because the sniper is overpriced here. SCM sales show sales at ~$1

Sale 13:

Sold for white stuff

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256378451#!/compare/1471392000/1471564800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116821354#!/compare/1471305600/1471478400

Excluding this sale, because white stuff

Green Confetti Hat to Kill For:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57bd4756c44045247c4a97f1

Smoking Conjurer's Cowl:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57bd4dc686674764ab59474f

Sellers:

19 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28384683 - 3 weeks, poorly bumped

20 keys:

http://puu.sh/qMq1G/6685d89cab.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198071307854

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28315794 - 1 month, poorly bumped

21 keys:

http://puu.sh/qMq2S/2e48b58080.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198068894665

25 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28398454 - 2 weeks, strange

28 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28394059 - 2 weeks, strange

29 keys:

http://puu.sh/qMq51/a36dec1566.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198032176942

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28326005 - 1 month

Sales at:

14

15

16

17 (3x)

19

21 (2x)

Sales at 14 and 15 were quicksells, and the guy that sold for 16 pure declined 15 on their outpost.

Going with 16-21