Suggestion: Vivid Plasma Tavish DeGroot Experience at 33–45 keys

Price Suggestion

~24 keys

vivid

62 votes up

11 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was marked as bad evidence and closed Mon, 29 Aug 16 18:42:45 +0000 by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

There should always be enough evidence to back up the new proposed value. However, it appears that the evidence is not strong enough, or cherry-picked in a way that does not represent the actual market value of the item. Therefore, this suggestion has been closed.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Usable Sale:

Sale #1: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1468627200/1468713600

Sold for a Orbiting Fire Fortunate Son (44.5 keys, mini below)

= 44.5 keys

Seller:

@33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28435227

Mini:

Mini on the Orbiting Fire Fortunate Son:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/57c1ee16c44045496661ef4f

=44.5 keys

Even if I end up capping the high end on the OF Fortunate Son suggestion @45 using the seller, I would round the 39 to 40 and this would bring it to a mean of 42.5 which I would still round to 45.

I feel like the sale is an outlier given the seller.

Seller just lowered recently, was @~50 when I originally created the suggestion.

Well then it definitely need keeping an eye on. Should it age this will be too high.

i think that's fine. upvote

More sales:

Added 2 Keys for a Blizzardy Storm Killer's Kabuto(Outdated at ~28)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069703224#!/compare/1465948800/1466208000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1466121600/1466208000

Sold with a Bubbling Fuka(~12) for a GE Stovepipe(~36)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101133707#!/compare/1466035200/1467504000

This should be used for the Stovepipe most likely, but it supports the aforementioned sale.

Personally i'd just go with whatever the Kabuto is updated at(which the GE Stovepipe sale would support), but regardless of that 45 is going to be way too high here.

Both sales are invalid due to being outdated.

They're both 2 months old with the kabuto sale barely being 2 months old itself. They're valid to be used.

If you still feel like these sales should not be used then just wait for another sale. 45 is not supported by anything really, not even by the current sellers.

Both sales you provided are over 2 months old and therefor not valid, I also don't really see how a single seller that lowered a day ago classifies this sale as an outlier.

"Exceptions: For very rare hats, if there have only been 1-2 sales in the last 3 months, a trade up to 3 months old is okay to use as proof to establish more data points. Keep in mind, new sales should take precedence over older ones."

Thing is, it's not just the seller at 33 that classifies this an outlier, but previous sales as well as I've shown you. Should've this suggestion been done at the time of the ~45 sale it would've equally been classified as an outlier.

Previous sales, B/Os and sellers indicate that 45 is ridiculously high here, and implying the seller at 33 sold, that would be a sale to take precedence over the outdated ones.

"if there have only been 1-2 sales in the last 3 months" this is not the case here.

I still don't see how 2 unusable sales and a rather young seller indicate anything, even though younger sales take precedence over old ones, that doesn't mean that older ones should be disregarded.

Sales within 3 months have always been valid.

Especially in cases where it is super clear that one flat value is too high, more data points (even slightly older ones) are very suitable as proof. Those two sales only happened a month before the only sale being used here (mid june vs mid july).

To be fair, I think this sale is an indication that 50 is too high for that fortunate son.

This is definitely too high.