Suggestion: Burning Flames Chill Chullo at 510–550 keys

Price Suggestion

~225 keys

burning

68 votes up

6 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Fri, 23 Sep 16 20:29:17 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

I'll grab this since Lila closed it.

4 recent sales, credits to Lila.

Sale 1:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211674749#!/compare/1470873600/1470960000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754#!/compare/1470873600/1470960000

http://backpack.tf/item/4568516296

I purchased it for PE Muffs(250), Bonzo Tartan Spartan(95), 138 keys pure, and ~28 keys sweets.

511 total rounding to 510.

Sale 2:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211674749#!/compare/1470873600/1470960000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100281792#!/compare/1470873600/1470960000

I sold it with 15 keys pure for a Circling Heart Crone's Dome.

552.5 rounding to 550.

Sale 3:

Sold with a Searing Plasma Guad(~23) and a G. Fetti Mongolian(~10) for a D@D Pyromancer's Mask(No possible mini, taking 194), RA Hat of Cards(110), and a C. Moon Headwarmer.

Most recent sale on the Headwarmer was in Nov. 2015 and it was this.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051476520#!/compare/1447142400/1447315200

Maybe this sale can be used for the C. Moon Headwarmer but I'm not touching it on this suggestion with a 10 foot pole.

Sale 4:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027768238#!/compare/1464825600/1464912000

I have no clue if I'm honest.

Rolling with 510-550.

I guess I'll repeat what I wrote on the last one then

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051476520#!/compare/1472169600/1472256000

bought the chullo for a D@D pyromancer mask, a roboactive hat of cards and a cloudy moon head warmer

Both the warmer and the mask are outdated, lots of offers here over backpack suggestions http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27555633#latest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27135716 hazmat was offered on the headwarmer and quicksold at 350, and the current owner wants 320. Helps to show warmer needs updating.

I'd recommend waiting for usable sales for these hats though

Something looks wrong with the first compare link too, the chullo isn't involved at all and the second link is very messy to pull out a sale from

Second one seems low too, last suggestion on the crones showed examples of it selling for over 600 several times http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57b44248c4404567951e3ef8

Just saying you don't want to "touch this sale with a 10 foot pole" doesn't make it invalid, and its far out of the range of the other sales so shouldn't just be ignored out of laziness

You really should wait for some of the other things to get priced / at least attempt a mini and resuggest at a new value, because as of right now I feel unsure about the validity of this update

I mean I can screenshot both of my sales from my trade history if you'd like. Both of those sales definitely support a drop and I got little offers in the time I owned it.

I added the item history to sale one because the compare link doesn't show it but the history matches.

I don't like to use offers as minis for suggestions unless it's necessary, and I personally think that it's not here. Item offers don't accurately represent the pure value of an item at all which is what Backpack.tf's prices reflect and they can be faked very easily. As stated in the suggestion I attempted a mini on both the Pyromancer and the Headwarmer but neither had valid mini's. I'd like a moderator's opinion though.

What about the crone's suggestion that you yourself made raising it to 600-670?

Doesn't make sense for you to use it priced in this suggestion at 525, where if it was priced even based on the low end of your suggestion, the 2 higher sales of the chullo would make sense considering the current range and not need a resuggestion, leaving the 510 sale as a 100 key lower outlier and the other 2 falling inside the current range

A moderator stated that suggestion was invalid and I promptly closed it. I didn't make the original Chullo suggestion so I had no word on resuggesting it.

Also worth stating that even if your sale with the Headwarmer etc. was valid it'd be a high outlier due to the two sales at 510 and 550. Nosok's was also unsold at 600 for a few weeks on the classifieds for a bit but I have no evidence to back up that statement so it shouldn't be used as proof in this suggestion.

To quote Foamy,

"510 is when we would use the chullo here instead of the other way round (never said it could not be used for the chul, I even think it should, see below). 450 sale happened after the previous suggestion was made; I believe it belongs to this sale

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995232897#!/compare/1468886400/1469318400

Without the BO that sale would fit the current range (near the high end at current, probably below low end realisticly though)."

Why is the one 100 below the current price considered fine for a resuggestion but the one following the current price considered an outlier?

Why did you also ignore the sale at the bottom? Some really really quick maths says that both sides of the trade come to around 950-1000, taking the chullo at its current price, this would be a second supporter of the current price being fine as is

As I still see it the current price works fine for 2 recent sales, with that crone's one maybe suggesting a small drop in range, but the 510 sale still seems like a heavy outlier in comparison to the other 3 sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28224135#latest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28395987

2 months unsold at 600.

This pretty much makes any sale above 600 an outlier.

Also, I found out sale 6 was the TC for the Chullo, Veil, and Luchadore. The TC was 750 at the time so this supports the drop even further.

I'd still think a price drop using the crone's as a low point and the other 2 sales as supporting the current price as a high end would be more accurate than a price drop using the 510 sale as a low point and ignoring half of the sales, but it's not up to me in the end.

There's just no way to evaluate the headwarmer or the logo hazmat. No sale on the hazmat since February. I mean your own comment on your trade says the previous owner was selling for 239 which is why you rejected the offer, and then you want to use a value of 350 on it.

There's really nothing on the mancer either besides the b/o of 200 on it currently. At their current listed prices, your sale value is around 575 which is close enough to the range here that I just can't close this suggestion based on that sale. Sometimes when sales are clearly a lot higher we'll close based on the very point you bring up - can't just ignore a sale especially when it's clearly higher than the others. But in this case, there really just isn't anything to show that.

We left this up for a month hoping to get a sale on the hw, mancer, or chullo, but we haven't gotten one for any of them. Accepting this now. Can be resuggested with future sales.