Price Suggestion
Cool Knife (Well-Worn)
Submitted by Salvage
WW
Unusual Knife Cool
111 votes up
5 votes down
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Comments

Usable Sales:


Sale #1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095978190#!/compare/1470528000/1470614400 - buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096029791#!/compare/1470355200/1470614400 - seller

B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28393667 - 27 keys - sold in 1 day

Sold for 26 keys pure

= 26 keys


Sale #2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021383012#!/compare/1472083200/1472169600 - buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236007746#!/compare/1472083200/1472169600 - seller

B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28441516 - 30 keys - sold in 1 day

Sold for 26 keys pure

= 26 keys


Sale #3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177139147#!/compare/1470528000/1470614400 - buyer - DeGroot doesn't show

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069140011#!/compare/1470528000/1470614400 - seller - Knife doesn't show (was bought on the same a day)

Sold for a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Stickybomb Launcher (21 keys) + Stormy Storm Tavish DeGroot Experience (15 keys, mini below)

= 36 keys


Unusable Sales:


Sale #2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069140011#!/compare/1470528000/1470614400 - buyer - Knife doesn't show (was resold on the same day)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089039143#!/compare/1470528000/1470614400 - seller - Bonnet doesn't show (was resold on the same day)

B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28394324 - 50 keys - sold in 2 days

Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Glengarry Bonnet (14.5 keys, outdated)

= 14.5 keys/Low outlier/Not fully trackable


Sale #3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089039143#!/compare/1468713600/1468800000 - buyer - Pencil Pusher doesn't show (was resold on the same day)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031561339#!/compare/1468713600/1468800000 - seller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28324585 - 50 keys - sold in 8 days

Sold with a Morning Glory Coldsnap Cap (201 keys, oudated) and a Steaming Pencil Pusher (17.5 keys, outdated) for a Circling Heart Merc's Mohawk (unpriced)

= Bulk/Should be used for the Mohawk


Sale #4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198236007746#!/compare/1471910400/1471996800 - buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016070169#!/compare/1471824000/1471910400 - seller (Scattergun is invisible there but history on buyer's compare link matches)

B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28420902 - 35 keys - sold in 7 days

Sold with 8 keys pure for a Strange Killstreak Australium Scattergun (27.5 keys)

= 20 keys/Low outlier


Quickbuyer @20: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28355000 - proves 20 to be low - credits to Mag1c Guy


Mini:


Mini on the Stormy Storm Tavish DeGroot Experience:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148737046#!/compare/1473206400/1473292800 - buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026146231#!/compare/1473120000/1473292800 - seller

B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28426268 - 15 keys - sold in 19 days

Sold for a Collector's Professional Killstreak Flare Gun (9 keys) + Strange Blasted Bombardier Stickybomb Launcher (Factory New) (7 keys)

= 15 keys


Sales at: 14.5?, 20, 26, 26, 36


Thanks to Mindacos for helping me with this!

    Now that one thing got settled, I am still wondering why 26 is left in the range, with two quicksales at that price, and a quickbuyer for that much!

      2 sales at 26 prove it to be a common selling point.

        But they each sold in one day, and there is a quickbuyer for that much. Just because, for example, two guys quicksold their burning kabuto at 230, does not mean an accurate price for the kabuto would be 230. I get the common trading point thingy, but I'm not too sure how relevant that is when this point is based on two 24-hour pure sales.


        I'd have kind of understood 26 as a low end better if there was just one sale like this, "seller may have got lucky" or something, but two sales, confirms this knife is a solid 26 pure as a quicksell, and quicksells are not to be included in the range.

          Outliers are defined by the deviation from the mean, not by the time it takes to sell. Look at all the sales, even if I'm not using all of them, the sales clearly show 36 flat to be way too high, I wasn't even sure if 36 should be in the range for quite a long time (asked Mindacos in the end).

            But quicksales are defined by the time they take to sell. That is the very definition of quicksale: something that sold very quickly for pure. Quicksales have nothing to do with the deviation from the mean. If an item happened to sell twice in one day for a certain amount of pure, then it is clear it did quicksell for such amount of pure, and not that the seller just got lucky, which sometimes happens.


            We're not talking about whether a sale for items is an outlier or not. If there were 4 sales for 26 in items in one day and one at 36 in like, dunno, two months, it is obvious 26 has got to be included in the range, as it is, as you previously mentionned, a common trading point. Here it's about an item clearly selling ultra easily for pure. And you keep ignoring this quickbuyer, but you can't. Well Worn > Battle Scarred, that's a totally valid point, confirmed by the quickbuyer himself.

              Quicksells don't really exist, at least in the way how you described them, time is a factor that can be used to determine outliers, however it is not necessarily a determining factor, with 2 sales it is clear that a price is a common trading point, no matter how quickly they sold.


              Regarding the quickbuyer, 2 sales @26 prove it to be a common trading point, independetly of a person trying to buy the item for that price or not. Well Worn > Battle Scarred is absolute nonsense, that is 100% based on personal preference, I for one prefer Battle Scarred over Well Worn by a lot, does that automatically mean Battle Scarred > Well Worn? No, it doesn't, and neither does that guy's opinion. We use sales to determine definite values for items, not assumptions based on other wears.