I kind of like this hat.

Sale #1:

Bulk

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086605050#!/compare/1468886400/1468972800

Sale #2:

Duped Scorching Pugilist's Protector (30 keys in mini) + Peace Football Helmet (16.5 keys in open suggestion)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053668449#!/compare/1467331200/1467417600

30 + 16.5 = 46.5; rounds down to 46 keys (I'm rounding down rather than up because the next sale is lower)

Duped Scorching Pugilist's Protector:

Sold for 28 keys + 2 keys in metal = 30 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168906972#!/compare/1473292800/1473379200

Sale #2:

Quicksold for DBD Black Watch (outdated at 40 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28233059 - Trophy was likely offered

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108036395#!/compare/1466380800/1467331200

Seller owned the Flies Trophy for less than a day so this should be excluded, but it does support a drop.

Sellers:

http://i.imgur.com/oc7VbNT.png 49, 50, 55 (all clean)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26063324 50 keys, hsan't sold in a year (this seller was in the suggestion I made for this hat a year ago)