Suggestion: Dead Presidents Baron von Havenaplane at 16 keys

Price Suggestion

~13 keys

65 votes up

12 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Tue, 20 Sep 16 17:44:08 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Dead Presidents Baron von Havenaplane

This has quietly been in scrap.tf for about a month. Let's get into it; lots of recent sales.

Sellers:

18 keys unsold for 5 days

http://imgur.com/CGefter

~16 keys @ scrap.tf, unsold 1 month

http://backpack.tf/item/5058890843

http://imgur.com/6UIvLia

Sale 1:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073589016#!/compare/1470355200/1470441600

Sold for a Stormy Storm Hotrod (15, see mini below) + 1 key

X = 16

Sale 2:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255263038#!/compare/1466985600/1467244800

Sold for 12 keys

X = 12

Probably a quicksell, not using

Sale 3:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221205628#!/compare/1467763200/1467849600

1:1 for a Blizzardy Storm Soviet Gentleman

Gentleman is unpriced, should be used for that

Sale 4:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221205628#!/compare/1467936000/1468022400

Sold with 20 keys for an Overclocked El Jefe (30, see mini below)

30 - 20 = 10

X = 10

Seems low not using

Sale 5:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144959370#!/compare/1468800000/1468886400

Sold for a Aces High Gentleman’s Gatsby

I couldn't find a good mini for this, all sales I could find were quicksells. The Baron could be used to update this. Not using

Sale 6:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138292052#!/compare/1471651200/1471737600

Sold for 16 keys

X = 16

Sale 7

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059103224#!/compare/1472601600/1472688000

Sold for a Green Confetti Physician's Protector (19, see mini below)

X = 19

Seems high, not using

Minis:

Stormy Storm Hotrod:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139140380#!/compare/1470355200/1470441600

Sold for a Steaming Defiant Spartan (15)

X = 15

Overclocked El Jefe

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221205628#!/compare/1468022400/1468454400

Sold for a Orbiting Planets Modest Metal Pile of Scrap (34, however sellers at 30, taking 30)

X = 30

All other recent sales were bulk deals

Green Confetti Physician’s Protector mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102805459#!/compare/1472601600/1472688000

Sold for a Steaming Thirst Blood (19)

X = 19

Sellers at:

18 ~ 1 week

16 ~ unsold 1 month

Sales at:

12 (qs)

Unsold at 16 makes anything higher than 16 an outlier, eliminating the sale at 19 and seller at 18. 12 is definitely a quicksale, eliminating it and the low sale at 10. Only other sales are the two at 16, and an unsold at 16.

Final Price: 16 keys

Seller for 18 inactive, 19 is not outliner

Even if the seller at 18 may be inactive, that doesn't change anything. No way 19 can be in the range considering the unsold at 16.

by your logic 16 is outliner too just because of unsold, so you need to cap at 12. not many low-tier sellers uses scrap.tf, your unsold can be based on scrap.tf only if you make the price more lower. sorry for broken english, i hope you understand what i meant

Btw Steaming Thirst Blood outdated too, here is a mini

Sold for Ancient Codex A Head Full of Hot Air (16.5 keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170109470#!/compare/1473120000/1473206400

Now, I think 16 flat will be fine here

I don't see how sale 2 is a quicksale, should be fine to use imo.

It's a pure sale 4 keys lower than anything else. Definitely seems like a quicksale to me - what's your logic behind including it? You could probably make an argument for including for other reasons but it seems like the definition of a quicksell.

You're probably mixing up the terms "quicksale" and "outlier" a sale can't be a quicksale if it didn't sell quickly, the only thing it can be is an outlier which doesn't seem to be the case here.

Just because a sale is pure and sold lower that others doesn't mean it's a quicksell. A quicksell means that the hat sold for something else in a quick period of time (relative to the other sales).

Just because something sells for pure and is lower DOESNT MEAN THAT ITS A QUICKSELL