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~400 keys
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Unusual Tough Stuff Muffs Death at Dusk
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Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202339421#!/compare/1473897600/1474156800

Sold for a Vivid Plasma Federal Casemaker (???) + Subatomic Phononaut (65)

Should be used for Casemaker


Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118621402#!/compare/1473552000/1473724800

Bulk


Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118621402#!/compare/1473724800/1473811200

Bulk


Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055224435#!/compare/1472515200/1472688000

1:1 with GE Casemaker (250)

Capped at 240: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28460034

Credits to "Gengetsu"


Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145495863#!/compare/1472169600/1472515200

Scorching Le Phantom? 125 LOW


Sale 6:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207086995#!/compare/1473292800/1473379200

Human Cannonball 13th Hour (200)


Mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095978190#!/compare/1473292800/1473465600

Sold with a Kill-a-Watt L'homme Burglerre (15) for a darkblaze gibus (240)

240 - 15 = 235 HIGH

Just going with lowest seller:

http://imgur.com/a/vHgVG - 200


Sale 7:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065110530#!/compare/1474416000/1474502400

Sold for 30 keys pure + TF Logo Hong Kong Cone (193)

193 + 30 = 223


Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57e2f6578667476406416f7e


Not using banned user's sales.


240

200

223


Flips table and walks away ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Logo cone mini is too high as that ignored the 143 seller on the cone. That sale's gonna be a bunch lower. I think the GE case sale is an outlier here as well as the phantom sale, unless the vivid case sale ends up being around 240 as well (which I doubt actually). I would check the vivid case for other sales and see if that could be used here to determine whether or not 240 should be in the range

The HKC in sale 7 was updated to 167 a while ago. That sale is 200.


There's a current seller on the casemaker at 130, which would put sale 1 around 200 as well.


Here's a more solid mini for the cannonball in sale 6

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593#!/compare/1474070400/1474329600 - 170

http://backpack.tf/item/4255459928 - most recent sale here was the one on SCM for $403 - http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Human%20Cannonball - ~160-170 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061464918#!/compare/1473465600/1473552000 - used to price the hot dogger, so can't use this

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102772694#!/compare/1472947200/1473120000 - hallmark is duped. there's a duped seller at 110 but sale here will definitely be under 175


Even if we conservatively say the cannonball is 170-220 (b/o was 220 on your high sale) and call it 195, sales here become 125, 195, 200, 200, 240. And the 240 sale comes from the GE casemaker which is also probably high given the seller for that at 180. I think 200 flat would be okay. 200-240 is going to be too high.