Fire + 420.

http://backpack.tf/item/920534714

Sale 1) Sold for a Knifestorm Bonk Boy (234 Keys) + GE Rotation (180) + Spec KS SF Scatter (~16 Keys) + Strange Pro KS Machina (~10.5 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024925599#!/compare/1471910400/1471996800 - Seller's Backpack

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100322725#!/compare/1471910400/1471996800 - Buyer's Backpack

234 + 180 + 16 + 10.5 = 440.5, which rounds to 440 Keys

Bonk Boy Mini

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085861958#!/compare/1471651200/1471737600 - Sold + HG Trilby (28 Keys) for a Beams Bonk Boy (255 Keys) + 7 Keys

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57c9c1da8667470c726429f5 - Using Sale 1's value for the Sunbeams Bonk Boy, since Sale 2 was this sale ^

(255 + 7) - 28 = 234 Keys

Rotation Mini

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58116b37c440451cde2339da - 180 Keys

Sale 2) Sold for a Scorching Flames Rotation Sensation (397.5 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000644153#!/compare/1471392000/1471996800 - Buyer's Backpack

Rounding to 400 Keys

Sale 3) Sold for a Scorching Flames Coldsnap Cap (400 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000644153#!/compare/1471392000/1471996800

The Coldsnap was in-date at the time of the sale and is only ~1 week Outdated now. The old price should be fine.