Sale 1:

Sold for Searing Whoopee Cap (Mini at 25 below)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313861131#!/compare/1474156800/1474329600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095820039#!/compare/1474243200/1474329600

X = 25

Sale 2:

Sold for Smoking Bone Dome (17) + 6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28466032 - B/O of 23

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091288681#!/compare/1472947200/1473033600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996732143#!/compare/1473033600/1473120000

X = 23

Sale 3:

Sold for 23 keys?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28354111 - B/O of 23

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042938501#!/compare/1471651200/1471737600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198276412408#!/compare/1471737600/1472169600

X = 23

Sale 4:

Sold for Green Confetti Hat to Kill For (20.5)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262042936#!/compare/1475798400/1475971200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176125115#!/compare/1475884800/1475971200

X = 21

Sale 5:

Sold for Stormy Old Guadalajara (mini at 17.5 below) + 3 keys + small amount of ref

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080668962#!/compare/1472860800/1472947200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097135729#!/compare/1472860800/1472947200

X = 21

Sale 6:

Sold for 20 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1474243200/1474329600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069031399#!/compare/1473033600/1474329600

X = 20

Sale 7:

Quicksold for 19 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28465651 - B/O of 22

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097135729#!/compare/1472860800/1472947200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112287629#!/compare/1472860800/1472947200

X = 19

Sale 8:

Sold for Blizzardy Cheiftain’s Challenge

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095820039#!/compare/1474329600/1474502400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1474243200/1477353600

Chief is quite underpriced, can be used to update it.

Sale 9:

Sold for Bubbling Skid Lid + ~0.5 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28491550 - B/O of 22

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092570830#!/compare/1474070400/1474156800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313861131#!/compare/1474156800/1474329600

Couldn’t find a proper sale on the skid lid.

Stormy Guadalajara mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5811bae28667472bd558595a

Searing Whoopee Cap Mini:

Sold for Max’s Head (23 at the time) + 2 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112612121#!/compare/1473465600/1473552000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999963686#!/compare/1473465600/1473552000

X = 25

Sellers:

23 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/xcvLQbD.png - 18 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198176125115

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28533695

http://i.imgur.com/xwL5DfZ.png - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198125791160

Sales at:

25

23 (2x)

21 (2x)

20

19

Sale at 19 quicksold. Excluding 19.

25 is a bit too high due to the two sellers at less than 25, one of which is over a month old

Going with 20-23