Suggestion: Stormy 13th Hour Familiar Fez at 43–62 keys

Price Suggestion

~1000 keys

13th

237 votes up

34 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Thu, 24 Nov 16 17:51:40 +0000 by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Let's ignore a pure sale, shall we?

Usable Sale:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1471824000/1471910400 - buyer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027694776#!/compare/1471824000/1471910400 - seller

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027694776?time=1471910400

B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28406520 - no B/O - took 12 days to sell

Sold for 43 keys pure

= 43 keys

Previous suggestion was just (wrongfully) accepted so that's where the high-end comes from: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5812886583de6b1af05c6614

"Sales older than 2 months old are not valid proof; this does not mean that they are not useful. Feel free to include them to provide supplemental proof. Just don't rely on them to set your range."

Yeah, lets. That's over two months old.

Read on.

I should say the same.

That rule is meant for hats that are commonly exchanged. For hats that have ~10 exchanges in the past 2 months, you should give precedence to newer sales. For hats that rarely exchange, you should consider anything within the past 3 months.

However, since both these sales were in pure, and the last one was far more recent (over 2 months later), I support the suggestion as it was accepted recently over this late counter. The same precedence mentioned above should be taken into consideration here; as there is no doubt about the 'pure' value of the most recent sale (since it was in pure keys).

While newer sales take precedence over older ones I do not understand the logic behind completely disregarding valid but old sales (especially if they're pure sales) for no apparent reason, at least when they are in a reasonable range (which is the case here). If both sales were discrepant I would support the older sale being ignored but since that is not the case I won't.

Sorry for the late reply, missed the notification when you originally commented :P

not my bebeh!

Sale is outdated now.

Mods waited until it went outdated, this was fine at the time it was posted.

That's exactly why I think the reasoning as applied above should be taken into consideration, and especially why I see no point in forcing a range on something that has had a suggestion accepted already. The only reason I did not close it before is because I wanted to see if other mods agreed/disagreed. There was only one mod that replied and he's indifferent about whether or not this should be accepted or rejected (in the mod comments). This is what I replied there:

"exactly that is my problem with including really old sales when theres fresh pure sales to go by. For what bptf aims for - a current common trading point in pure - that flat value is way better of a representation than one where a sale that happened more than 2 months before the most recent sale since:

- Both sales are pure (or more specificly: the last sale was pure).

- The market isnt flooded (I think its the only one that recently sold; in such cases, its far more likely for a hat to resell around what the last buyer paid, than what a buyer over two months before that sale paid for it. If theres a million on the market Im far more hesistant to reprice something based on a single sale anyway)

- The sales are relatively far apart (if it was 60-62 then I guess it'd just show a longer term stability)"

Note that that last case only applies to non-fixing suggestions (i.e suggestions that actually update an outdated hat). Needless to say, a change from 62 to 60-62 as in the example is redundant.

I also want to add to that set of reasons that there are no other indications that 62 may be a wrong value. In some extreme cases (like when a new collector suddenly gets his hands on a ton of pure and starts paying insane amounts for hats that otherwise never sell, like what happened to burglerres about 10 months back, when chuckles won a ~5000 key pot on sweetstakes), using 'the last pure sale' can be misleading; in most of those cases, you saw that those pure sales were far more (in some cases around 3x as much) as the actual common trading point. Thats why hats like the GE homme are still horribly overpriced.

The more it matters when a suggestion is handled compared to when its made (in terms of sale dates), the less older sales should weigh compared to newer sales. its similar to how - in the opposite situation - I dont like using near-outdated sales as being 'the only recemt sale', when theres like 5 more sales slightly before that one, that all have a vastly different value. The 2 or 3 month threshold mentioned in the rules should function as a tool to focus on the current common trading point, rather than as a solid cutoff