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Orbiting Planets Pampered Pyro
This is the only hat I have ever sold to scrap.tf, and it is still in there a month later. I guess I made the right call :P
Selling:
http://imgur.com/a/l12SO
http://backpack.tf/item/2306721237
Unsold in scrap.tf @ ~16 for 1 month
Sale 1:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292160165#!/compare/1474070400/1474156800
Sold with 3 keys and ~2 keys sweets for a Stormy Storm Noble (24, see mini below)
24 - 3 - 2 = 21
X = 19
Sale 2:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292160165#!/compare/1474156800/1474243200
Sold with 3 keys and 3 keys in sweets for a DBD Price Tavish’s Crown (21, updated today)
21 - 6 = 15
X = 15
Stormy Storm Noble Mini:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118235963#!/compare/1475107200/1475280000
Sold for a TF Logo Desert Marauder (Barely out of date at 26)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198118235963 B/O of 24
X = 24
Capping sale 1 at the unsold in scrap.tf @ 16. Using both sales.
Final Price: 15 - 16 keys
I would probably go with 15-19. Most traders don't go to scrap.tf to find unusuals they want to buy, so a hat sitting there for a month doesn't necessarily mean as much as an unsold on bp.tf or outpost.
Imo Scrap.tf unsolds are probably the best form of unsold if you are lowering a hat. Nice hats sell within minutes of being sold to scrap.tf so there are obviously a ton of people constantly viewing the bot's inventory. If scrap.tf can't 'quicksell' a hat at the price of 16 for 1 month, then 16 is definitely too high as even with a 4 key discount, nobody thinks they can sell for more. Thousands of people probably saw it and decided not to purchase it over the course of that month. I get what your saying about people not going to scrap.tf to look for a specific hat, but I highly doubt anyone would actually be searching for this specific hat (there are countless better unusuals) and I got 0 offers on it at all during the month I owned it, dispite having it listed on bp.tf and outpost (albeit not at a discounted price, but supports). I doubt more than a handfull saw my bp.tf listing, and the only people who looked at my outpost trade probably clicked on it for a different unusual. To sum up if a hat cant sell at a largely discounted price for a month despite constant traffic of people looking to buy quicksells, than 16 is likely too high, let alone 19.
bot dropped to 14 Keys, still unsold.
It's still there at ~15 keys.. considering how long it's been in there now, I'd call this close enough