Price Suggestion
~645 keys
sbtwc
Unusual Brotherhood of Arms Something Burning This Way Comes
32 votes up
11 votes down
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Sale 1: 406 solid

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970904315#!/compare/1475971200/1476144000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524#!/compare/1476057600/1476144000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28538456 - B/O 450

Sold for Sunbeams Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood (400 - mini #1) + 6 keys


Sale 2: 449 -> ? - not using

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065600921#!/compare/1477008000/1477094400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1477008000/1477094400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198065600921 - Unable to find B/O

Sold for Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun (34) + Burning Flames Rotation Sensation (415 but duped, see mini #2)


Sale 3: ??64 - not using

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994933458#!/compare/1476230400/1476316800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1476230400/1476316800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28537853 - B/O 450 keys.

Evidently sold for a Poisoned Shadows Old Guadalajara (64 - mini #3)

- either this is an outlier or I'm missing something.


Sale 4: 375 face value -> 349 post mini

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994933458#!/compare/1476144000/1476230400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543#!/compare/1476144000/1476230400

As per http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28537853, purchased for a clean scorching Bubble Pipe (230) and a clean GE Pyromancer (145, outdated - #4 = 119)


Sale 5: 231 - outlier, not using

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991208302#!/compare/1477612800/1477699200

- happily snagged this from my tf2op 'quickbuying' ad :) - apparently aPPers needed some quick keys, poor guy :(


Sale 6: Untrackable - not using

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085269574#!/compare/1476057600/1476144000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543#!/compare/1476057600/1476144000

- Not sure what to make of this?


--------------


Sellers:

1: Just me (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28570237#latest)

- see below


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Minis:

#1 - duped Sunbeams Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079098551#!/compare/1477094400/1477180800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524#!/compare/1477094400/1477180800

Sold for Burning Flames Demoman's Fro (87) + It's A Secret To Everybody Troublemaker's Tossle Cap (170) + Scorching Flames Head Warmer (200 but duped) = valid


#2 - duped Burning Flames Rotation Sensation

Can't find any usable sales. Shouldn't affect this suggestion though.


#3 - outdated (2y) Poisoned Shadows Old Guadalajara

Outdated by 2 years, but given irrelevant to above I haven't chased down a mini.


#4 - outdated (6m) GE Pyromancer

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068772560#!/compare/1478044800/1478131200

148 = 29 + X, X = 119

(This may very well be an underestimate, I'm just using the first clean sale I found + it gives me a clean range).


--------------


Notes:

- Yes, I view this as my 1st 'actual' suggestion

- Yes, I own one of these. What prompted me to make this suggestion (with an initial B/O of 350) was I found the number of offers I was getting a bit overwhelming, including offers that were clearly coming from people looking to further resell for profit.

- A list of some of my C/O's can be seen at http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28570237#latest, and I'm happy to provide screencap proof of those that aren't self-evident.

- I'm posting this as I happen to have already done 90% of the research work already; my intention is NOT to use this as an advertising stage. I trade for the enjoyment, and I'm happy to withdraw my ad for the duration of this suggestion.

- No, my sales aren't in chronological order. Sorry :(

    Phew, done! I would welcome any 1) constructive criticism, 2) fixing of the holes in my suggestion or 3) tips! :)

      Lol, just realised Sale 3 also included a Vintage Scrap Metal (340, 8 months old). I didn't realise this was a thing, but it's apparently quite valuable.

      - current value = 340, current suggestion (http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5807f26986674728113187e8) dropping this to 310 **however** it itself is using Sale 3 as evidence.


      This makes Sale 3 a bit more complex, however thanks to SpotlightR "Mini 3" has already been completed:

      "Poisoned Shadows Guad mini:

      http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978861677#!/compare/1470441600/1470528000

      Sold with a Stormy Storm Bonk Boy(36.5) for a KaW Cone(77.5).

      41 total."


      So I'm not sure what price to place on Sale 3 in the end, gets a bit complex:

      a) If we use this entire suggestion to re-price the Vintage Scrap at 375 - 41 = 334 (which isn't vastly different to it's current price of 340), and Sale 3 would become invalid for the purposes of THIS suggestion;

      - - OR - -

      b) Sale 3 becomes worth 340 + 41 = 381 (given there's no other usable sales to re-price the outdated Vintage Scrap).


      I'll think more about this later, gotta head. All input in interim welcome.