Suggestion: Spellbound Officer's Ushanka at 60–100 keys

Price Suggestion

~95 keys

spellbnd

67 votes up

15 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Thu, 08 Dec 16 22:07:09 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

I have complete proof of the $200 sale. Read updated proof.

1st sale

This hat sold for $200 on the 24th of October.

http://puu.sh/ssifx/408ae8cc4b.png

http://puu.sh/ssrTv/889cfbb27f.png - conversation with the person who bought it for $200.

http://prntscr.com/db1nht - updated, full screenshot of the $200 spent on the Ushanka.

I was told, in my past suggestion, to simply suggest for 100 keys as a high-end, as per current marketplace.tf rates, $200 = 100 keys. Do let me know if I should switch it to 91 (price after taxes).

2nd sale

I bought it today for 60 keys. The seller was originally asking for 110 keys, but I was able to talk him down to that price.

http://puu.sh/ssiq8/e0333d0366.png

http://puu.sh/ssisn/b0b7b05ee3.png

I have no intention of selling this hat anytime soon.

Outlier

Quicksold for 35 keys.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961134832?time=1478217600 credits to 42.

Two sales from 60 and 100 prevent it from being valid. The very rarity of the hat and the fact it's unpriced lead me to believe 35 is the outlier between those sales. It being quicksold for this cheap could be due to it being unpriced.

Large range for a very rare hat.

Sorry about only giving you half the info earlier with the conversion to 91 keys, but I learned something new.

However you need to include the sale that foamy gave you, and decide where it stands. Is it an outlier or a real sale (your suggestion, you make that call) This link shows the 35 keys better (sort by time), http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961134832?time=1478217600

Thank you for your continuous support. I've decided to classify it as an outlier looking at all the factors that come in play, though I do remain open to any objections to that claim.

I can't edit my initial post, so to all those who might potentially object to this suggestion under the pretense 35 should be a valid sale: Considering a top-tier Heavy hat with a god-tier Halloween effect (hell, Spellbound Hound's massively duped and I bought one for 69 keys back in the day. This one is clean, 1/1 and rarely hits the market) to be able to go for so cheap is criminal in my opinion. 2 sales that aim to a high value > 1 low sale and 1 high sale that aim to a mediocre value on such a rare hat.

how the fuck... talking down 110 keys to 60 keys...

You're a god.

Not my first rodeo.

200$ does not equal to 100 keys.1 key is 2.49 dollars.it would equal to 208.21 dollars

Wrong. Keys go for $2 e.a on marketplace.tf. We are not using SCM rates for a marketplace.tf sale. The guide to suggesting unusual prices on the bp.tf forums even supports this, that you have to use the price for the site it was bought from.

ok my bad.true since normal keys is cheaper than in-game

It happens, don't mention it.

well i aint too sure.according to an item i own for 100 keys directly says for 208.21 dollars.thats how i got the pricing...

this range tho

I did suggest at 60-91, but was told to resuggest at 60-100 instead since 100 is representative of the high-end of the cash sale. I did once price a burning toque with a 20 keys range, but a 40 keys range is certainly something new. Ah well, sales are sales.

when a large range is seen, you should see to a 3rd sale to figure out the outlier. If there are no sales finable and hat is unsalable, leave this up for the mods to decide. also i love you because your a heavy main. dont let anyone tell you different. all heavy mains are lovable people.

I did. The 35 keys sale is obviously an outlier in my opinion, not only looking at the raw numbers, but just looking at the hat, no way it's worth 35 keys, even as a low-end. Maybe that'd go for like a spellbound pugilist protector? (no idea how much these are worth or if they even exist). I've spent all of my trading career trading up Heavy hats and I definitely don't agree with the notion that 35 could be anywhere near what it's worth. The 100 sale is furthermore characterized by the rarity of the hat. Of course, the final decision is up to the community and mods and I'll respect it, I didn't buy this hat to flip it.

Also thank you!!!

Perhaps 60 is the outlier here. Perhaps he was cashing out or quickselling it and that's why he was willing to go down so much?

If 60 is the outlier here 90-100 would work.

I personally have no idea why he was quickselling. I know I've made huge losses in the past often based on impulse, or because I thought the hat wasn't worth my time and that it'd incur even more losses. Perhaps that's how they felt, but their reason is irrelevant to me.

If we do take 90-100 we're considering both sales to be outliers, and we're basing the hat's price on one sale. I don't know how I feel about my hat being priced at much more than what I paid for it.

Should this suggestion come to pass, the middle range will be 80 keys, which I personally feel reflects the hat's true value pretty well. (spellbound bear sold for <100 keys if I recall correctly, DUPED spellbound hound dog was priced at 60 after I bought it for 69. That is why I feel like even remotely considering 35 as a valid sale is lunatic.)

It's just as arguable that the 100 key sale is equally as much of an outlier as the 35 key sale. Since the most recent sale - your sale - was purchased at 60, and you have no intentions of resale, surely it would be fairer to price it as a flat 60 to remove risks of the outlier(s) affecting the price.

But, for the record, I'd purchase this with no hesitation if I saw it at 35. Congrats on the purchase.

I did think of pricing it at 60 as to disregard both sales. I don't feel like it's very fair to ignore a sale that's entirely based on the hat's rarity the same way you'd ignore a sale that occurred in ~24 hours for dirt cheap if I'm not mistaken. Also, thank you, it's probably one of the best Heavy hats I've owned, and I've owned a lot of those.

To all those who are critical of the 40 keys range: 50 keys range suggestion made for an Arcana spy hat.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5844a9628667473cec0ebfa7