Sale 1:

Sold with ~12 keys in items for Scorching Hottie’s Hoodie (Mini at 120 below) + Beams Trophy Belt (130)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28490054 - Offers

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1473897600/1473984000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114807851#!/compare/1473897600/1473984000

X = 238

Rounding to 240

Sale 2:

Sold with 5 keys + ~7 keys in Stranges for Secret Hot Dog (205)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28512676 - B/O of 200

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075510510#!/compare/1477872000/1477958400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129254323#!/compare/1477612800/1477958400

X = 193

Rounding to 195

Sale 3:

Sold with Bubbling Fukaa (outdated, insignificant change) for Circling Heart Modest (195)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120147285#!/compare/1473552000/1473638400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127729506#!/compare/1473552000/1473638400

Bubbling Fukaa has 3 sellers at 11 keys currently. Going with 11 for the fukaa

X = 185 (rounded)

Sale 4:

Sold for:

Miami Nights Combustible Kabuto (Mini at 20 below)

Searing Plasma Professor’s Peculiarity (Mini at 45 below)

Orbiting Planets Sammy Cap (Mini at 15 below)

Dead Presidents Lord Cockswain’s Pith Helm (Couldn’t find mini, going with 17)

Duped Peace Sign Head Warmer (Mini at 33 below)

Peace Sign Raincatcher (Mini at 17 below)

Memory Leak Ballcap (29)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087356733#!/compare/1473811200/1473984000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998374145#!/compare/1473897600/1473984000

X = 176

Rounding to 175

Sale 5:

Sold for Beams Noir (55) + Purple Energy Party Phantom (75) + Strange Pro. KS Kritzkrieg (~20 at the time) in ~2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28509075 - B/O of 200

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045309178#!/compare/1474761600/1474934400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075510510#!/compare/1474761600/1474934400

X = 150

Sale 6:

Sold in 2 days for 144 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28556395 - B/O of 165, was relisted multiple times, only time it was listed this low.

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524#!/compare/1477267200/1477353600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075415934#!/compare/1477267200/1477353600

X = 144

Rounding to 145

Sale 7:

Sold for 140 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28569969 - No visible B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1479340800/1479427200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035884807#!/compare/1479340800/1479427200

X = 140

Sale 8:

Sold for Morning Glory Barnstormer (37.5) + Spellbound Tartan Tyrolean (Mini at 100 below)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216334547#!/compare/1473897600/1473984000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1473724800/1473897600

X = 137.5

Rounding to 140

Sale 9:

Sold with 37 keys + 1 key in ref for Purple Energy Well Rounded Rifleman

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114807851#!/compare/1475452800/1475539200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1475366400/1475452800

Would be better to update the Rifleman with this sale

Sale 10:

Sold with Circling Heart Geezer + 7 keys for Haunted Ghosts Executioner

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127729506#!/compare/1473724800/1473811200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087356733#!/compare/1473552000/1473811200

Would be better to update the Executioner with this sale, not many usable sales on the thing.

Sale 11:

Sold for Lantern Salty Dog (No mini available) + Time Warp Pillar of (No mini available) + Aussie Flamethrower (15)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1475452800/1475539200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524#!/compare/1475452800/1475539200

Unable to provide mini for either hats. Excluding this sale.

Sale 12:

Sold for Frostbite Spook Specs

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094428372#!/compare/1473379200/1473465600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050933686#!/compare/1473292800/1473465600

Would probably be better to update the Specs with this sale, the Specs are lacking in sales.

Orbiting Planets Sammy Cap Mini:

Sold for 15 keys in about 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28449695 - B/O of 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167602704#!/compare/1472688000/1472860800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133531421#!/compare/1472774400/1472860800

Going with 15

Scorching Hoodie Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/583651b28667472545105b02

Spellbound Tartan Tyrolean Mini:

Sold for Duped Beams Le Party Phantom (Mini at 100 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28410622 - Deleted B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1473638400/1473724800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1473638400/1473724800

http://i.imgur.com/diyrkow.png - Oh...

X = 100

Beams Phantom Mini:

Sold for 100 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28516602 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1476403200/1476489600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078571846#!/compare/1477008000/1477612800

Miami Kabuto Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58365cb2c440452049501b85

Searing Peculiarity Mini:

Only valid sales are quicksales

4 month old seller at 45 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/ai9Fb3n.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198096389539

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28594439

Peace Sign Raincatcher Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/583667fc86674713e306ca52

Duped Peace Sign Head Warmer Mini:

Sold with Dead of Night (1) + 1 key for Orbiting Fire Nickle (35)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179178805#!/compare/1478131200/1478217600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204034064#!/compare/1478131200/1478217600

X = 33

Sellers:

180 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28607620 - 1 week

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198065044765

195 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/BxmWw6v.png - 1 month, listed for 200 here

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28601409

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198050933686

200 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/1IlvKy0.png - 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28615273

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198050933686

http://i.imgur.com/CFFz86t.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28607778 - 1 week

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198036143685

Sales at:

140 (2x)

145

150

175

185

195

240

The sale at 144 was a bit of a quicksell, and it sold for a fair bit less than the B/O. Going to call 145 and lower outliers.

With 145 and lower excluded, the sale at 150 would create a large range, considering most other sales occurred in the 175-195 range. Sale at 150 occurred rather quickly too. Excluding 150

240 is an outlier, and there are multiple sellers for much less. Excluding 240.

Going with 175-195. Feedback on the range would be appreciated, because I’m not sure here.