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Sale 1:
Sold for Purple Energy Familiar Fez (45.5)+ Infernal Smoke Most Wanted (Mini at 26 below)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28618628 - No visible B/O
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1479686400/1479772800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064534997#!/compare/1479686400/1479772800
X = 72
Sale 2:
Sold for Aces High Casemaker (Outdated) + Purple Confetti Le Party Phantom (36.5) + 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28602864 - B/O of 60
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039908097#!/compare/1479081600/1479254400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062751030#!/compare/1478995200/1479254400
Should easily cap at the B/O
X = 60 (Capped by B/O)
Sale 3:
Sold for Duped Burning Industrial Festivizer (Mini at 58 below)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28616568 - B/O of 60
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037947478#!/compare/1479513600/1479600000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026194410#!/compare/1479513600/1479600000
X = 58
Sale 4:
Sold for Stormy Well-Rounded Rifleman (Mini at 57.5 below)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28588943 - Deleted B/O
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066065032#!/compare/1479254400/1479340800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087269909#!/compare/1479254400/1479340800
X = 58
Sale 5:
Sold for Pro. KS Aussie Eyelander (33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28568659 - B/O of 300
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093511517#!/compare/1477785600/1477872000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045176442#!/compare/1477785600/1477872000
X = 33
Sale 6:
Sold for Hot Minimal Wear Flower Power Scattergun
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318138402#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125329673#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000
Can be used to price the scattergun
Sale 7:
Sold with Infernal Smoke Bad Pipes for Aussie Scattergun
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143470931#!/compare/1479513600/1479600000
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1479427200/1479513600
This sale would probably end up being close to 0
Sellers:
54 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28622138 - 1 week, assuming poorly bumped, due to only 20 views at the time of suggesting
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198064534997
75 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28623483
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198062751030
80 keys:
http://i.imgur.com/tLki45G.png
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198027378787
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28617328 - 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28607726
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198078207818
Offers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28604169
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198152648165
Duped Burning Festivizer Mini:
Sold for Max’s (23 at the time) + Spec. KS Strange Pan (7) + Pro. KS Gold Botkiller Stickybomb Launcher MK.II (10) + Strange Pro. KS Grenade Launcher (7) + Strange Mann of the Seven Sees (2 at the time) + 11 keys
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121778217#!/compare/1473984000/1474070400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101092551#!/compare/1473984000/1474070400
X = 60
Current price is in-date, at 56-60. Since the dupe sets the high end here, it would be fair to use a clean one for the low-end.
Going with 56-60 (58) for the Duped Burning Industrial Festivizer
Infernal Smoke Most Wanted Mini:
Sold for 25 keys + 2 Spec. KS Genuine Ham Shanks (1)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045773828#!/compare/1479772800/1479859200
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174748513#!/compare/1479600000/1479859200
X = 26
Sales at:
33
58 (2x)
60
72
33 is low, and 72 is high. Excluding them.
Going with 58-60
1. http://prntscr.com/ddhmc6
1. http://prntscr.com/ddhmd7
currently keys are $2.25
1. 39 - 46 keys
2. 40 - 47 keys
edit: 54 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28622138 is not poorly bumped. Views are similar to http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28588943 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28602864 Can unusuals be considered poorly bumped since they have little competition on outpost?
Hmm, 40-60 seems like a rather large range, but i'll see what others say.
Infernal Flames got priced at 85-120, even with the seller at $170 (64-76) on the market
40-60 doesn't really look wide imo.
Infernal Smoke was seen as one of the worst effects while Infernal Flames was seen as one of the best effects (don't ask me why) on a poll I made a while ago on the forums, can't find it though so can't provide proof, this being lower seems reasonable to me though.
Considering there are three sales at the 58-60 range, we would be setting a low-end 18 keys lower than the most common trading point, and basing the low end off of SCM sellers at that. I don't ever recall anyone setting the Iow-end with SCM sellers before, either. You'd also have to take into consideration how long the SCM sellers have had their listing up for. I could only identify one of the sellers, and it looks like he's had his listed anywhere beteen 1 to 6 days, which is pretty young:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064534997#!/compare/1479945600/1480464000
I'm not sure if you're just bringing up random facts with your poll, or if you're trying to support your opinion on setting the low-end to 40, but it doesn't change a thing here.
Well, if there's a seller at that much lower it has to be considered, of course we should keep an eye on it and see how long it lasts.
I brought up the poll since it sounded like you were suprised by the fact that Smoke is that much lower than Flames.
Infernal smoke is the most noticeable effect. Flames is popular just because of the color. I've heard hellish inferno looks better on moving taunts. In the end, I think all three of those effects are pretty similar. Value currently is not due to the effect but rather how many are on the market. I think just spectral swirl will settle a bit lower than the other three.