Starstorm Slumber Vive La France

I guess I'm gonna try this one. Trying not to look at the past suggestions and form my own opinions. All sales are sorted by time to determine ‘hype’ outliers. Requested.

Selling:

http://imgur.com/a/ZrIIU

Young qser @ 70

17 day unsold @ 80

A bunch of young sellers around 150.

Sale 1: (October 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142197455#!/compare/1477699200/1477785600

Sold for ~45 in stuff.

Definitely a shark given how far back this was. This was probably the only tradable one then.

Idk if dayz adds dumb unboxers to shark them but I swear everything is does is borderline sketchy. He always seems involved in these kinds of trades. See sunbeams bot dogger suggestion and Insomnia Ground Control (see compare links)

Sale 2: (October 30th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214020751#!/compare/1477699200/1477785600

Dayz now quickly sells for a ~180 key unusual. lel. This is definitely a ‘hype’ sale.

Sale 3: (November 2nd)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108999#!/compare/1478044800/1478390400

Sold for an Its a Secret To Everyone Slick Cut (160, see mini below)

Sale 4: (November 4th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074810157#!/compare/1478217600/1478304000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074810157?time=1478304000 - sort by time

Sold for 16 pure? Im probably missing something here, seems unreasonably low.

X = 16

Sale 5: (November 4th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198264256787#!/compare/1478217600/1478908800

Ye old 5:3. No way this is usable.

Sale 6: (November 5th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071939990#!/compare/1478390400/1478476800

Sold for a D@D Pomade Price (85, indate)

X = 85

Sale 7: (November 6th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103539657#!/compare/1478476800/1478649600

Sold for a Peace Sign Grim Hatte.

This one im pretty confidant is a shark

X = 24

Sale 8: (November 6th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234053256#!/compare/1477958400/1478390400

Added a Bubbling Drill Hat (16) for an Insomnia Vive

Should use for the other Vive.

Sale 9: (November 14th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108628484#!/compare/1479081600/1479168000

Sold for a Pool Party Unusualfier

Edit. Histories don't match. Either way not usable.

Sale 10: (November 14th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197981022996#!/compare/1478649600/1479168000

Sold for a Smoking Team Captain (43, indate) and a Max (18)

43 + 18 = 61

X = 60 (rounded)

Sale 11: (November 15th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152493946#!/compare/1479168000/1479254400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175249965#!/compare/1479081600/1479254400

Sold with an Infernal Flames Boston Breakdance for a Tesla Merc’s (all histories match)

Better used for the mercs

Sale 12: (November 19th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152493946#!/compare/1479513600/1479600000

Sold for 63 keys pure. Sold in 3 days = quicksale.

Sale 13: (November 26th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256583061#!/compare/1480118400/1480204800

Another low pure sale. Took ~1 week to sell, but the owner was cashing out so I think we can safely determine this as a quicksell.

Sale 14: (November 27th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173886386#!/compare/1479686400/1480291200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173886386#!/compare/1480291200/1480809600 - rest of keys are here for some reason. 2 were spent on something else id imagine

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108999?time=1480291200 - sort by time

Sold for 65 keys pure and a Slumber Carcharodon (19, indate)

65 + 19 = 84

X = 85 (rounded)

It's a Secret To Everyone Slick Cut Mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073872845#!/compare/1478390400/1478476800

Only recent usable sale is bulk for a Bonzo Dapper’s. Its 1/1 so there will not be any other sales. Taking current price.

X = 160

Sales at:

45

180

160

16

85

24

60

63 (qs)

85

I am giving precedence to newer sales. 45, 180, 160, and 16 are way to old and either way too high/low, excluding all of them. 24 is a shark, excluding it. The quicksell at 63 makes anything lower too low, excluding 60. All is left is two sales at 85. Including 80 in the range due to the 17 day unsold @ that price.

Final Price: 80 - 85 keys

holy crap that was a lot of work.