Sale 1: (Dupe)

Sold for Circling Heart Hard Counter (Outdated)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28626568 - B/O of 12

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061765971#!/compare/1480032000/1480118400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173092790#!/compare/1480032000/1480118400

Given that the hard counter has a buyer at more than 11 keys, it would be safe to assume that it is at least 12 keys

X = 12 (capped by B/O)

Sale 2: (Dupe)

Sold for 11 keys + ~1 key in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047752822#!/compare/1476662400/1476748800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079471106#!/compare/1476662400/1476835200

X = 12

Sale 3: (Dupe)

Sold for Smoking Big Country (Mini at 12 below) + <0.5 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28615041 - Deleted B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069825031#!/compare/1479427200/1479513600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061765971#!/compare/1479513600/1479945600

X = 12

Sale 4:

Quicksold for 11 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28556514 - B/O of 12

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321560283#!/compare/1477008000/1477094400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042955091#!/compare/1477008000/1477094400

X = 11

Sellers:

12 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/SQUQwJ8.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28611637 - 2 weeks

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198018528305

13 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/zpOpVol.png - Same seller as 12 key seller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28640598 - 3 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198018528305

Smoking Big Country Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/584599948667473fc70d6dbb

Sales at:

11

12

11 seems to be a quicksell price. Excluding 11.

Going with 12 flat.