Suggestion: Midnight Whirlwind Taunt: Pool Party at 190 keys

Price Suggestion

~4.73 keys

whirlwnd

103 votes up

7 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Wed, 04 Jan 17 07:26:02 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Sale #1

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095902384#!/compare/1480464000/1480550400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145735260#!/compare/1480032000/1480550400

Sold for Infernal Smoke Mannrobics (130)+ Showstopper Bronco (150)

= 250

Sale #2

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

Sold with 5 keys for C.Heart HWNN (192.5) = 188

Sale #3

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047433991#!/compare/1480636800/1480723200

Sold with Hellish Meet the Medic + Infernal Smoke Disco Fever for Sunbeams Slo-Poke - no minis on Slo-Poke

Minis

Infernal Smoke Mannrobics

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092173139#!/compare/1478995200/1479254400

Neutron HWNN + Spec Australium RL + Hellish Sprits + Infernal Smoke BAttin + Blizz Chieftans

https://gyazo.com/dee1689ca34e0695ecee020f675f1aaf - seller now asking 130 – cap at this

Showstopper Bronco

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129254323#!/compare/1480982400/1481068800

Sold with ~5 keys sweets for Tesla War Pig (155) = 150

Micro for War Pig

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071022923#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

~155

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28644933 - 225 keys

Taking 250 as an outlier and going with 190 keys

The War Pig trade was just a 1:1 for the FoD Flippin.

Ah ok, luckily I'm not using that trade as it seems a high outlier but thank you for the information.

I would suggest that you reconsider your first sale, as the Bronco sale you used for the mini was apparently an outlier, as shown by the current suggestion here: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/584ff4850e2cad52a93243e0

I'm not using the first sale anyway as it's too high already

Ah okay. I feel like if it sold for that much more, that this might need a resug or some more sales to properly estimate a value. The 190 might end up being the outlier. Such a large difference makes me feel as if the potential of the item is greater than 190, and that some more trades might highlight which end the outlier sits at.

There are sellers below 250, that makes 250 an outlier

1/2 of the sellers on bptf are below 250, and that's you. I just think that Sale #1 might be grounds to at least consider waiting for a couple more sales. A good statistician knows to use a good sample size, to properly exclude conflicting outlier data. This suggestion is very decent, but I'd hate to see such a nice unusual cut off prematurely from it's potential.

I guess another suggestion can be done later if higher sales happen.

If you can't sell at 225 then that makes 250 an outlier

Also, more of these keep getting made increasing the supply and as a good statistician and economist it is known that that will decrease the demand and cost of these items.

and then you sold it for 106 keys mixed. most definitely needs a range