Suggestion: Massed Flies Your Worst Nightmare at 45–55 keys

Price Suggestion

~40 keys

flies

49 votes up

9 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Wed, 14 Dec 16 19:42:46 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Massed Flies Your Worst Nightmare

Counter-ish part 2.

Sale 1:

Sold for a Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher, Genuine Point and Shoot, and a Zoomin' Broom.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148468780#!/compare/1481500800/1481673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069559160#!/compare/1481587200/1481673600

https://puu.sh/sOIoq.png - Taking 54 keys on the RL.

Sale 2:

Sold for 45 keys.

http://i.imgur.com/srRby6c.png

https://puu.sh/sOImj.png https://puu.sh/sOIn1.png Unsold for approximately a month for 55 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/950499426

The sale comes out to 58 keys, but considering the 1 month unsold at 55 keys, and probably far older judging by how long he's owned it, it's best to cap the high end at 55 keys. Rolling 45-55 keys as it took three weeks to sell at 45 keys.

Bingo.

Seeing how fast it was flipped for that RL, I probably would not be setting a low end here based on a scrap.tf sale.

[edit]

I just saw you acted on someone telling you it needed a range; meh.

My stance here regarding scraptf is simple: scrap.tf does not actively advertise their hats for sale. Many traders dont check it and dont use scraptf. They're an idle service, not putting in much effort to sell. Naturally they take longer to sell, or require larger discounts in order to sell.

Thats one of the reasons why im not really fond of the suggestions out there using scraptf as sole proof. Im aware they exist, and that some have passed, and I disagree with nearly all of them personally. From my point of view, this is better off at a flat value, but feel free to wait for another mod to weigh in here before resuggesting.

[edit2]

iTrade's comment below completely proves my point. Even though it was there for a while, he could instantly resell it for items sellable to quickbuyers for 10 keys more than he paid. It shows directly that scrap.tf has a limited audience among traders.

well, outpost seller at 50, which recently changed his buyout from 55, which was unsold for 5 months.

He's selling at two different values. If he lowered to 50, then he did so 5 hours ago.

Yup, but the unsold for 5 months at 55 and the fact that it was with scrap.tf for 3 weeks makes me feel like putting it into the range is more accurate.

I only bought this hat from scrap.tf because I knew the guy would trade it to me for the rocket launcher.

in other words: you bought it because it was free, literally direct profit. that's exáctly why I think scrap shouldnt be used for a low end here. if someone can buy from there and then INSTANTLY resell it for items he can QS for more than he paid in full pure, then obviously the low end is going to be low.

I disagree with this conclusion because scrap.tf bought it for even lower than for what they sold it to me. Scrap.tf always makes profit with its sales and therefore using 45 keys as the low end is perfectly justifiable.

I agree, I don't think scrap.tf should EVER be used for main proof. Probably okay to use as supporting proof, but not as the only proof.

Scrap.TF bought the hat for cheaper than for what it sells it so why exactly should it not be allowed as proof for unusual hat sales?

because they quick buy, and like foamy and wolfi said, scrap.tf doesn't bump their posts... There are hats that sit there for months.

When a new hat pops up on scrap dozen people check it. Not hard sell hats are usually resold within minutes. It's mostly the hard to sell hats that are sitting on there forever. Now you could say that those dozens of people who check scarp are generally not interested in those hard to sell hats, but that speaks more for the hat than for scrap.

I'm not sure exactly if we should allow scrap as proof, but i can see both sides work out.

The hat was on scrap.tf longer than just a few minutes because I had to negotiate with my buyer first and that took more than just a few minutes ;-)

My loose rule is that the hat needs to be up for at least a month regardless of value. Scrap.tf's unusual banking is a lot more popular than it used to be. I'd actually argue that it might get more attention than a single random trade on outpost or a classifieds listing - particularly in the "quicksell" market. For sure, buyers looking for specific hats are less likely to look for their hat there, but nowadays you see so much activity in histories involving scrap.tf bot that I think it's far from just niche service. I think it's totally fair game to say that a hat is severely inflated if it can't sell for a month on scrap.tf.

As always, we look at sales in the context of other sales. Obviously if a scrap.tf sale is far away from other sales, it should be considered an outlier.

Thanks for creating the suggestion at this price range. You beat me to it by a minute :)

I bought it for 45 keys and sold it for 55

http://i.imgur.com/srRby6c.png

http://i.imgur.com/BAMo304.png