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Quite a drop for this one.
Sale #1
Sold with keys for a Blizzardy Storm Dread Knot and keys.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135141930#!/compare/1476576000/1476662400
Mini for Dread Knot
8 keys for the Dread Knot + three keys in pure and metal. Keys were about 23 refined.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004460702#!/compare/1476835200/1477094400
5 + 15 = 22. 22 - 5 = 15.
Sale #2 [Outlier]
Sold for 18 pure.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164135796#!/compare/1479513600/1479600000
Sale #3
Sold for 14 keys plus a Bill's Hat. Treating the Bill as 2 keys.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062511894#!/compare/1482278400/1482451200
14 + 2 = 16.
Only sales I could find within the two-month date range.
tbh the 15 would be an outlier and the 18 alright due to a buyer at 15 on classies and no sellers below 18
18.5 seller for 1 month backs the drop. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28642518
the 15 sale is not an outlier, its just not 15. he values the dread knot at 5.
The 16 sale is wrong; he sold it to a quickbuyer for 16 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23592415
he got the bills and the ref afterwards, probably from a quickseller.
Wait for more sales or adjust the range?
the range needs an adjustment for sure; a blizzardy knot is definitely not 5 keys. More closely checking the sales I actually think the sale there is wrong as the histories dont match on the dread, but I cant figure out what was actually involved there. He may have qsed the dread to then buy it for keys, but wouldnt know how many
I only included the mini for the Dread Knot given that it was last priced 2 years ago.
Also, I'm never sure if minis should be the original item or just the item in general.
They're fine for the item in general.
Youre right in that it needs a mini, but 5 is going to be too low. There are people buying any unusual for 8 keys. Realisticly a blizz dread knot will be around 9-10 keys. However since I have my doubts that it was even involved in that sale (as said the histories dont match, I assume he sold the knot for keys and added keys to the 15 disappearing keys there for the noble, I just dont know how many). Its probably 3 or 4. The seller of the noble in that trade ended up having a max and a key (so 19), and that'd mean the knot was resold for 9 (which would be 5+4; the 5 keys seen in the sellers bp next to the noble, and the 4 keys added to buy it)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142635376#!/compare/1476576000/1476662400 buyers view.
However, Im absolutely not sure here. You could try confirming the sale with either the buyer or the seller.
Without that, 18 is your only valid sale