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3rd time's the charm. This time, without the 1-Day Buyout.
Oh wait, I did my math wrong and the last suggestion was fine. GG
http://backpack.tf/item/5167572288
Sale 1) Sold for easily over 400 Keys of Mixed
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095902384#!/compare/1478995200/1479081600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28597539 - Capped by the Buyout of 400 Keys
http://backpack.tf/item/282035933
Sale 2) Sold for a Duped Sunbeams Modest Pile of Hat (245 Keys) + Burning Flames Industrial Festivizer (58 Keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120570555#!/compare/1483142400/1483228800
245 + 58 = 303 Keys, which I'll round to 305 Keys
Modest Mini
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1480723200/1480809600 - Sold + 25 Keys for a Clean Beams Modest (270 Keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1486512000/1486598400 - burning kiss king - current suggestion up at 320
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28701960 - b/o 330 for a month
Sales here at 305, 320 and ~500. Two b/os at 370. I think the 500 sale that's getting capped at 400 is an outlier here. 305-320 should work here.
Actually after looking into this a bit more, sale at 500 happened because it was a low history modest. History matters a great deal on these hats and that's something we need to account for in suggestions too.