Sale 1:

Sold for Killstreak Batsaber (9) + ~7 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258723049#!/compare/1479600000/1479686400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144098606#!/compare/1479600000/1479686400

X = 16

Sale 2:

Sold for Steaming Backbiter’s Billycock (Mini at 11 below) + 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28612706 - B/O of 16

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005471649#!/compare/1481241600/1481500800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277464612#!/compare/1481241600/1481846400

X = 16

Sale 3:

Sold with <0.5 keys in items for Bubbling Drill Sergeant + 2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28644544 - B/O of 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084438672#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005471649#!/compare/1480723200/1480896000

Should easily cap at the B/O

X = 15 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 4:

Sold for 14 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248472812#!/compare/1483228800/1483315200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272924807#!/compare/1483142400/1483315200

X = 14

Sale 5:

Sold for Starstorm Insomnia Cranial Carcharodon (Indate at 16.5, with buyers at 13 to support this sale)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28707009 - B/O of 13

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1483920000/1484006400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296967233#!/compare/1484006400/1484092800

http://imgur.com/a/1CtQO

X = 13 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 6:

Sold for 13 keys?

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253533632#!/compare/1480032000/1480204800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066595010#!/compare/1478822400/1481414400

X = 13

Sale 7:

Sold for 11 keys + 14.11 ref

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066595010#!/compare/1482364800/1482883200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198248472812#!/compare/1482710400/1482796800

X = 12

Sale 8:

Sold for 6 keys + ~6 keys in metal/items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138563445#!/compare/1480723200/1480809600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084438672#!/compare/1480723200/1480809600

X = 12

Sale 9:

Sold for 12 keys?

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202694983#!/compare/1479427200/1479513600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258723049#!/compare/1479427200/1479513600

X = 12

Sale 10: (Dupe)

Sold for Strange Spec. KS Pan (6.9) + 1 key + Bill’s (1.7)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28697478 - B/O of 13

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088034952#!/compare/1483660800/1484092800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141972070#!/compare/1484006400/1484092800

”Don’t pay attention to the backpack.tf price as it’s outdated”, he says as he values the pan at backpack.tf price

X = 9

Sale 11:

Sold with 12 keys for Smoking Pillar of Hats

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211844316#!/compare/1483574400/1483660800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016070169#!/compare/1483574400/1483660800

Should probably be used for the pillar, but I wouldn’t recommend it if the pillar seller has no B/O, because otherwise, this sale will be pretty high.

Sale 12:

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Elfin Deal

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28701596 - Deleted B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016070169#!/compare/1483920000/1484006400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026486779#!/compare/1483920000/1484006400

Going to ignore this sale, due to the lack of B/O. This sale will probably end up being an outlier, anyway.

Steaming Billycock Mini:

Sold for 11 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28667711 - No visible B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1482019200/1482105600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087390671#!/compare/1482019200/1482105600

X = 11

Sellers:

30 keys:

http://puu.sh/tiAV9/fedc098107.png – 6 months, Spec. KS

http://backpack.tf/u/76561197978210095

The only seller on outpost has already sold. Their sale is labelled as sale 10 here.

Sales at:

9

12 (3x)

13 (2x)

14

15

16 (2x)

Paid 10 keys for mine via my buy order (which I have raised slightly, to be higher than hellcat’s buy order)

9 is an obvious outlier. Excluding 9.

Going with 12-16