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Selling:
sellers in classies at 10 keys
Sold:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109946397#!/compare/1481587200/1481673600 - sold for Nuts n' Bolts Doctor's Sack + sweets = 12 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255137887#!/compare/1483920000/1484179200 - sold for 8 keys (quicksold)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180890982#!/compare/1483833600/1483920000 - sold with 1 key for Circling TF Logo Stately Steel Toe = 11 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208062409#!/compare/1482278400/1482364800 - sold for 8 keys (quicksold)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316850646#!/compare/1482019200/1482105600 - sold for 8 keys (quicksold)
Mini's:
Nuts n' Bolts Doctor's Sack:
seller in classies at 10 keys
Circling TF Logo Stately Steel Toe:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218063977#!/compare/1483747200/1483833600 - sold with 1 key + sweets for Blizzardy Storm Outdoorsman = 12 keys
Seller at 9 keys
not even a day old
Now there's an 8 day old seller at 9.4: http://imgur.com/a/LGRBO
This suggestion will need some revisioning, as i'm pretty sure that 12 might be an outlier, or maybe even 11 as well.
re-suggest at 9-11? since all other sales were quicksells and 9 key seller isn't old enough to drop on b/o's
I dug through some stuff, and it looks like the sack sale caps at 10: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28657293
Well it's more like 9.8, but that can be rounded up(or down depending on your perspective).
I also found a sale for the toe at 10 keys here: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1485561600/1485648000
So the toe would be 11 on average here, making that sale 10 keys.
9-10 should work, if that seller at 9.4 were to sell the sale would cap at that(unless it sold for less), so I think it's worth adding it into the range. The 15+ day rule to drop on B/Os is mostly applied to unusuals that have no sales and can only be dropped by a B/O, so it should be fine to use on this case since there's several sales that supports it.