Sale 1:

Sold with 2 keys for Infernal Smoke Box Trot (59)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28549714 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084976847#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027378787#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

X = 57

Sale 2:

Lolwhat

Sold for Infernal Smoke Box Trot (59) + ~1 key in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28712376 - B/O of 50

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010082723#!/compare/1484611200/1484697600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049623970#!/compare/1484611200/1484697600

X = 50 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for Stormy Company Man (22) + Spec. KS Aussie Scattergun (28)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204824055#!/compare/1482969600/1483056000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154403863#!/compare/1482624000/1483056000

X = 50

Sale 4:

Sold for Scorching Engineer’s Cap + Max’s (19.25)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28522112 - B/O of 48

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197986206421#!/compare/1483833600/1483920000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132364510#!/compare/1483833600/1483920000

Should easily cap at the B/O

X = 48 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 5:

Sold for Miami Nights Neckwear Headwear (Mini at 41 below) + 6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28488687 - B/O of 50, re-listed multiple times, but without a B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1483228800/1483315200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147094422#!/compare/1483228800/1483315200

X = 47

Sale 6:

Quicksold for 36 keys + Victory Lap (3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28688407 - B/O of 46

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154403863#!/compare/1483056000/1483142400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043991016#!/compare/1483056000/1483142400

X = 39

Sale 7:

Quicksold-ish for 38 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28682415 - Offers

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101092551#!/compare/1482969600/1483056000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204824055#!/compare/1482969600/1483056000

X = 38

Sale 8:

Quicksold for 36 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28680311 - Deleted B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080242209#!/compare/1482710400/1482796800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101092551#!/compare/1482710400/1482796800

X = 36

Sale 9: (Dupe)

Sold for duped Haunted Ghosts Scotsman’s Stove Pipe + 12 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28608307 - B/O of 50

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961172123#!/compare/1481068800/1481155200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166542855#!/compare/1481068800/1481155200

This sale will be at least 40, and may even cap at the B/O. This should help prove the sales at and below 40 to be too low.

Sale 10:

Sold for Battle-Scarred Torqued To Hell Wrench

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056468036#!/compare/1481068800/1481241600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088495879#!/compare/1480723200/1481241600

Should be used to price the Wrench

Sale 11:

Sold for Morning Glory Outdoorsman

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088495879#!/compare/1481500800/1481587200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085269574#!/compare/1481500800/1481587200

Sales on the Outdoorsman are all over the place, and it would also look pretty low here anyways, based on the sales I found on the Outdoorsman.

Sale 12:

Bulk for Beams Well-Wrapped Prize

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172987227#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148511293#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000

Sale 13:

Bulk for Scorching Coldsnap

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027062821#!/compare/1480982400/1481068800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120347528#!/compare/1480896000/1481068800

Sale 14:

Bulk for Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046461179#!/compare/1479945600/1480032000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100928052#!/compare/1479945600/1480032000

Sale 15:

Sold with 7 keys for Frostbite Glasgow Great Helm

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28634972 - B/O of 52

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241272522#!/compare/1480723200/1480809600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010082723#!/compare/1480723200/1480809600

Would be better to update the helm with this sale.

Sale 16:

Bulk

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043991016#!/compare/1483315200/1483401600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206#!/compare/1483315200/1483401600

Sale 17:

Bulk for Infernal Smoke Burstchester

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238894924#!/compare/1484697600/1484784000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066195760#!/compare/1484697600/1484784000

Miami Nights Neckwear Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58821c22e338775d7e30b8d1

Sellers:

45 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28653634 - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198087179808

50 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/4L1Eti6.png - 10 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198148511293

http://i.imgur.com/KC0KeND.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198032780638

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28660088 - 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28689913 - 2 weeks

http://backpack.tf/u/76561197970667972

54 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/q4tAvfM.png - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198085269574

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28706899

http://i.imgur.com/2KLFbY6.png - 1 day

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198066195760

Sales at:

36

38

39

47

48

50 (2x)

57

Sales at and lower than 39 quicksold. Excluding 39 and under.

Going to exclude 57, seeing as it already looks like an outlier, every other seller is selling for less, and was for an item that was priced during the hype, which may be considered non-suitable here.

Seller at 45 for a month.

Going with 45-50.