Sale 1:

Sold for Molten Mallard Birdcage (26)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119629032#!/compare/1485129600/1485216000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071041124#!/compare/1485129600/1485216000

X = 26

Sale 2:

Sold for Peace Sign Chieftain’s (22.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28650192 - B/O of 19

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197974458792#!/compare/1481155200/1481241600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075491803#!/compare/1481241600/1481328000

X = 19 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for Orbiting Fire Full Metal Drill Hat (Mini at 16 below) + 1 key + ~1 key in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107120524#!/compare/1480982400/1481068800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093427905#!/compare/1480982400/1481068800

X = 18

Sale 4:

Sold for Neutron Star Brimmed (Buyers at 13+) + 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28632575 - B/O of 18

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997146443#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131988947#!/compare/1480291200/1480464000

Should cap at the B/O, regardless of the uncertainty of the Bandito’s price

X = 18 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 5:

Sold with ~1.5 keys in items for Miami Nights Pom-Pommed Provocateur (19.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28637784 - B/O of 17

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170368753#!/compare/1480723200/1480896000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147414741#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

X = 17 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 6:

Sold for Purple Confetti Bird Cage (Mini at 13.5 below) + 2 keys + ~0.5 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28645391 - B/o of 16.5

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147414741#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107120524#!/compare/1480809600/1480896000

X = 16

Sale 7:

Sold for Collector’s Pro. KS Hitman’s Heatmaker (12) + 4 keys + cheap skin

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28624257 - Deleted B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163041781#!/compare/1480204800/1480377600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170368753#!/compare/1480291200/1480377600

X = 16

Sale 8:

Quicksold for 15 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28715158 - B/O of 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114232885#!/compare/1484179200/1484265600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008217598#!/compare/1484179200/1484265600

X = 15

Sale 9:

Quicksold for 14 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28685187 - B/O of 16

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174203179#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151835897#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

X = 14

Sale 10:

Quicksold for 14 keys and a cheap hat

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28685835 - B/O of 20

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151835897#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243530442#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

X = 14

Sale 11:

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Flipped Trilby

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28648838 - B/O of 20

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093427905#!/compare/1481068800/1481155200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197974458792#!/compare/1481068800/1481155200

May be better to update the Trilby with this sale, couldn’t find a suitable mini for it.

Sale 12:

Sold with 3 keys for Lantern Berliner’s

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253309244#!/compare/1482019200/1482192000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095399026#!/compare/1482105600/1482192000

Should be used to update the Berliner’s

Sale 13:

Bulk for Chiroptera Venenata Pom

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095399026#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174203179#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

Pom is 3 years outdated, and due for an update

Purple Confetti Birdcage Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/588cbacce338773030745697

Orbiting Fire Full Metal Drill Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/588cc0610e2cad5c064179a0

Sellers:

18 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/pLwwwgF.png - 10 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198011321852

20 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/hatY829.png - literally just listed as I refreshed

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198192602363

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28716194 - 2 weeks

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198008217598

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28515016 - 3 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198049793971

Sales at:

14 (2x)

15

16 (2x)

17

18 (2x)

19

26

26 is an obvious outlier. Excluding 26.

14 and 15 quicksold. Excluding 14 and 15.

Going with 16-19.