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Been keeping an eye on this for 3 weeks now waiting for a new sale
Sale 1
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970548801#!/compare/1483833600/1483920000
Sold with subatomic spacemann and 60 keys for seating cardboard 670-142.5-60=467.5 rounding to 470
Sale 2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970548801#!/compare/1485475200/1485648000 1-1 clean scorching modest 370
Modest mini
Unsold at 370 for 2 months
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28598204
http://m.imgur.com/gP03rtB
The modest has resold:
Some deal for the C9 banana, better used for that
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970548801#!/compare/1486684800/1486771200
Sold for Duped Vintage Earbuds and a Circling Heart Hound Dog
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037248506#!/compare/1486684800/1486771200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1486684800/1486771200
Sold for a Burning Flames Bubble Pipe, an Eerie Orbiting Fire Le Party Phantom, a Scorching Flames Counterfeit Billycock, a Hellish Inferno Taunt: Buy A Life and 50 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1487116800/1487203200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28779664 B/O was 425
The modest is going to be higher than 370, but then again the Subatomic Space Mann is going to be less than 142. So if both sales were to be fixed, they'd fall around the same median as you have right now. I think it's fair to call this close enough.