Sale 1:

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Hotrod (Mini at 19 below) + Kill-a-Watt Glengarry Bonnet (Mini at 13+ below) + 10 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168842369#!/compare/1480204800/1480723200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985574158#!/compare/1480464000/1480723200

X = 42+

Sale 2:

Sold for Starstorm Slumber One Man Army (34.5) + ~4.5 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055#!/compare/1481414400/1481587200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063321305#!/compare/1481500800/1481587200

X = 39

Sale 3:

Sold for Green Confetti Das Hazmattenhatten (Mini at 36 below)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057987960#!/compare/1483488000/1483574400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030857201#!/compare/1483488000/1483574400

X = 36

Sale 4:

Sold for Searing Plasma Liquidator’s Lid (Mini at 22 below) + 9 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081963512#!/compare/1480377600/1480464000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138913274#!/compare/1479686400/1480464000

X = 31

Sale 5:

Sold with ~8 keys in items for Scorching Copper’s Hard Topper (Mini at 37 below). Skin and killstreak kits weren’t involved

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28658778 - B/O of 41

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063321305#!/compare/1481673600/1481846400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156585015#!/compare/1481760000/1481846400

X = 29

Sale 6:

Sold for Duped Cloudy Moon Jumper’s Jeepcap

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28685679 - B/O of 29

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119428262#!/compare/1482969600/1483056000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147921891#!/compare/1482796800/1483056000

Should easily cap at the B/O

X = 29 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 7:

Sold for 19 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28636515 - Offers

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138913274#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119428262#!/compare/1482796800/1482883200

X = 19

Sale 8:

Sold for Cauldron Bubbles Prince Tavish’s Crown

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28662805 - B/O of 40

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156585015#!/compare/1482105600/1482278400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169078769#!/compare/1482192000/1482278400

Couldn’t get a decent mini on the Tavish, however, given the current seller at 31, this should support sales around that price.

Sale 9:

Sold for Hot Field-Tested Woodsy Widowmaker SMG + ~2 keys (realistically) in painted items

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147921891#!/compare/1483660800/1483747200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017#!/compare/1483488000/1483747200

This’ll end up being lower than the sale at 19 keys pure.

Sale 10:

Sold for Tesla Coil Conquistador

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169078769#!/compare/1485648000/1485734400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170124494#!/compare/1485388800/1485648000

Should be used on the Conquistador

Green Confetti Hazmattenhatten Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5890c8a8c440457bde472eab

Searing Plasma Liquidator’s Lid Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5890c65d0e2cad29f806e30c

Blizzardy Storm Hot Rod Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5891513de33877466f57da1f

Scorching Flames Copper’s Hard Topper Mini:

Sale 1:

Sold for Orbiting Fire Executioner (31.5) + Spec. KS Aussie SMG (7.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28670463 - B/O of 37

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061464918#!/compare/1482364800/1482796800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182681385#!/compare/1482710400/1482796800

X = 37 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for 37 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28666675 - B/O of 38 (I do recall seeing 37 on the classifieds)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961172123#!/compare/1485734400/1485820800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031216938#!/compare/1485302400/1485820800

X = 37

Kill-a-Watt Glengarry Bonnet Mini:

Quicksold for 13 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28703125 - B/O of 12.5

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073472840#!/compare/1483660800/1483747200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136553995#!/compare/1483660800/1483747200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073472840?time=1483747200 (sort by time)

http://backpack.tf/item/3335344898

Couldn’t get any other mini on the thing. Sticking with this.

Sellers:

33 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28668228 - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198196385302

39 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/mDzlELZ.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198030857201

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28699023 - 3 weeks

40 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/eHE2X9S.png - 5 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198156315732

Buyer at 20 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/8cm2bsG.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198030857201

Sales at:

19

29 (2x)

31

36

39

42+

Another sale at approximately 31

And another sale at approximately 19

Buyer at 20 counters the sales below 20. Excluding 19.

Month old seller at 33, and 3 week old seller at 39, both show that sales above that are probably outliers. Excluding 36 and up.

Going with 29-31.