Sale 1: (January 21st)

Sold for 24 keys (buyer’s compare link)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28723807 - B/O of 24

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106158151#!/compare/1484611200/1484956800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072014453#!/compare/1484870400/1484956800

X = 24

Sale 2: (December 18th)

Sold for Logo Old Guadalajara (Mini at 18.5 below) + 1 key + ~3 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077934494#!/compare/1481932800/1482019200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130545649#!/compare/1481932800/1482019200

X = 23

Sale 3: (December 17th)

Sold with 6 keys for Blizzardy Master’s Yellow Belt (26.5)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120382814#!/compare/1481846400/1481932800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1481846400/1481932800

X = 21

Sale 4: (December 28th)

Sold for 18 keys + 14 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28676084 - B/O of 29

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198270711812#!/compare/1482624000/1482883200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035685222#!/compare/1482796800/1482883200

X = 19

Sale 5: (December 29th)

Quicksold for 19 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035685222#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119563409#!/compare/1482883200/1482969600

X = 19

Buyer has a buy order at 18, most likely lowered it from 19 since the purchase.

Sale 6: (December 17th)

Quicksold for 18 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205939253#!/compare/1481932800/1482019200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077934494#!/compare/1481932800/1482019200

X = 18

Sale 7: (December 19th)

Sold for Aces High Soldered Sensei

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28666991 - B/O of 25

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130545649#!/compare/1482019200/1482105600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852#!/compare/1482019200/1482105600

Sale 8: (December 13th)

Sold with 3 keys for Circling Heart Whoopee Cap

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28648329 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076020691#!/compare/1481500800/1481587200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072261308#!/compare/1481500800/1481587200

This’ll be pretty high without a B/O cap.

Sale 9: (November 12th)

Sold for Energy Orb Minimal Wear Black Dahlia Pistol

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085861958#!/compare/1478822400/1478908800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196918639#!/compare/1478822400/1478908800

This’ll also be pretty high, pistol is probably worth much more than it is priced at. Sale is also pretty old.

Logo Guadalajara Mini:

Sale 1:

Sold for 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28662975 - B/O of 20

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046167937#!/compare/1481414400/1482019200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133497032#!/compare/1478908800/1482019200

X = 20

Sale 2:

Sold for 17 keys in ~10 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28634968 - B/O of 17

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175665245#!/compare/1480982400/1481241600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255756675#!/compare/1480896000/1481241600

X = 17

Going with 18.5 for this.

Currently working on doing a full suggestion for the Guadalajara. May take a while, but the value shouldn’t change much. If it does, it’s most likely to fall in the range still.

Sellers:

29 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/Zrjci9H.png - 11 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198054758757

30 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/pDWMKyY.png - 19 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198119629032

http://i.imgur.com/9QT0Tlm.png - 27 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198119563409

http://i.imgur.com/EsmEZZQ.png - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198090956917

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28708448 - 3 weeks

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198058005787

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28733214 - 1 week

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198072261308

40 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/fhA9Koe.png - 2 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198031368462

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28610040

Sales at:

18

19 (2x)

21

23

24

18 is countered by buyers, and was a quicksell. 19 looks like a quicksell, also. Excluding 18 and 19.

On sale 7: Given the Sensei has sellers at 19 keys, one being a month old, we can assume that the Sensei would be no more than 19 keys, realistically. This would end up being countered by buyers here.

On sales 8 & 9: These sales will (most likely) be valued higher than 30 keys. Given the mass amount of sellers for 30 keys, some of them aged quite a bit, these sales will be large outliers.

Going with 21-24.

Update on sale 2:

Suggestion is up for the Guadalajara, at 16-20. This'll put sale 2 at 22 keys

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58948fb0e338775abc3debff