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Haunted Ghosts Ground Control
Not using the P.Fetti HKC Sale b/c no new minis and too much uncertainty on that one. A couple new sales throughtout the chain. This should be the best way to use the sales.
Sale 1:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133163345#!/compare/1479340800/1479427200
Sold with 2 key sweets for a Blizzardy Gatsby (18.5, indate, Kaw Gibus (52) and an Insomnia Norsemann (24.5, indate) + 1 keys sweets.
52 + 18.5 + 24.5 + 2 - 1 = 96
X = 95 (rounded)
Sale 2:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133163345#!/compare/1481328000/1481414400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133163345?time=1481414400 - Sort by time
Sold for a Starstorm Insomnia Mann of Reason.
No other sales there, would be super high there. Theres a reason the guy who got the ground control sold it to scrap.tf instantly, :p
Sale 3:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168489289#!/compare/1481328000/1481587200
Sold with Elite Grade Sniper Rifle skin for a Slumber BoA.
Better there for more data points
Sale 4:http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168489289#!/compare/1481587200/1481673600
Sold with the Rainbow Sniper (22, see mini below) for a P.Fetti HKC (108, see mini below)
108 - 22 = 86
X = 85 (rounded)
Sale 5:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019370873#!/compare/1478131200/1478304000
Sold for a Roboactive Voodoo JuJu
Better used there.
Sale 6:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082177715#!/compare/1485302400/1485388800
Sold for a Circing Heart Albrero (90, open suggestion)
X = 90
Kill-a-Watt Galvinized Gibus Mini:
http://imgur.com/a/HhT5P
1 month unsold @ 52, taking 52
X = 52
Purple Confetti Hong Kong Cone Mini:http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168489289#!/compare/1482451200/1482624000
Sold for a Blizzardy Crone (98, indate) + 10 keys pure
98 + 10 = 108
X = 108
Rainbow Sniper Rifle (Factory New) Mini:http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Rainbow%20Sniper%20Rifle%20%28Factory%20New%29
3 recent sales not countered by buy orders. Averaging them below. Keys were fluxuating around 2.3 to 2.4 during the time of these sales, using 2.35 below
((50 + 60 + 45)/3)/2.35 = 21.9
X = 22 (rounded)
Sales at:
95
90
Not using the HKC sale for uncertainty reasons, see past suggestion.
Final Price: 90 - 95 keys
I found some actual sales on the gibus:
Sold for a Starstorm Insomnia Lil' Bitey(62 Keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1484784000/1484870400
This was the sale that involved your seller at 52, so it'll cap at that: http://imgur.com/a/HhT5P
Sold for an Abduction Phononaut(55 Keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089675316#!/compare/1485648000/1485734400
This would make the gibus 52-55. 53.5 on median. Feel free to make a full suggestion for that.
I guess this will still be close enough as the gatsby likely needs a small drop(it's not indate as you say it is), so any change to that would still be close to 95.