Sale 1:

Sold for Infernal Smoke Box Trot (59) + <0.5 keys in metal/items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204215085#!/compare/1480636800/1480723200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125329673#!/compare/1480636800/1480723200

X = 59

Sale 2:

Sold for Green Energy Trophy Belt (Mini at 68 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28585732 - B/O of 48

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009950989#!/compare/1483747200/1483833600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057698743#!/compare/1483747200/1483833600

X = 48 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 3:

Sold for Smoking Salty Dog (Mini at 40 below) + ~7 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125329673#!/compare/1480636800/1480723200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090308403#!/compare/1480636800/1480723200

X = 47

Smoking Salty Dog Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58aafca00e2cad0e89182bdf

Green Energy Trophy Belt Mini:

Sale 1:

Sold for Purple Energy Mann of Reason (59) + 11 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28657253 - B/O of 68

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109946397#!/compare/1482105600/1482364800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991864288#!/compare/1482278400/1482364800

X = 68 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for Darkblaze Larrikin Robin (63) + Strange Pro. KS Bazaar Bargain w/ parts (~5, realistically)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991864288#!/compare/1482796800/1482883200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125760599#!/compare/1482796800/1482883200

X = 68

Going with 68 flat for the Trophy.

Sellers:

55 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/eyqlhLF.png - 6 days, duped

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198074924284

Sales at:

47

48

59

Sale at 59 looks like an outlier, especially with the sale at 48 taking about 8 months to sell. Excluding 59.

Going with 47-48.