Sale 1:

Sold for Cloudy Moon Tippler’s Tricorne (Mini at 68 below) in an auction

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28627950 - No B/O, however:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28682037 - B/O of 70 on the Tricorne, using this as the B/O.

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048468138#!/compare/1482364800/1482796800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084281951#!/compare/1482710400/1482796800

(No idea how to retrieve a link to the auction, was thinking I’d be able to get a better B/O there)

X = 68

Sale 2:

Sold for Aces High Patriotic Peak (Mini at 56.5 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28587016 - B/O of 65

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055261127#!/compare/1485129600/1485302400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1485043200/1485129600

X = 57

Sale 3: (Strange)

Sold with Stormy Storm Big Country (15.5) for Misty Skull Sergeant’s Drill Hat (73)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28765247 - B/O of 70

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051032766#!/compare/1487030400/1487116800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146596899#!/compare/1487030400/1487116800

X = 57

Sale 4: (Strange)

Sold for Morning Glory Vintage Merryweather (Mini at 46 below) + Field-Tested Killstreak Rainbow Sniper Rifle (~3)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131077446#!/compare/1487462400/1487548800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1487462400/1487548800

X = 49

Sale 5: (Strange)

Quicksold for Pro. KS Aussie Sniper Rifle (36)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258559368#!/compare/1487376000/1487462400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131077446#!/compare/1487289600/1487462400

X = 36

Sale 6:

Sold for 16 keys?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28572034 - No B/O, offers much higher here.

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079301761#!/compare/1479772800/1480032000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048468138#!/compare/1479772800/1480032000

Doubt this was the actual sale. Excluding this sale.

Sale 7: (Strange)

Sold in ~3 days for some amount of keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146596899#!/compare/1487289600/1487376000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258559368#!/compare/1487289600/1487376000

Morning Glory Vintage Merryweather Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58ac3acde3387762e85085e9

Aces High Patriotic Peak Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58ab13c6e33877503d0711a2

Cloudy Moon Tippler’s Tricorne Mini:

Sold for Green Energy Desert Marauder (Mini at 68 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28682037 - B/O of 70

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048468138#!/compare/1487116800/1487203200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057856963#!/compare/1487116800/1487203200

Green Energy Desert Marauder Mini:

Sold for Max’s (19) + Killstreak Aussie Knife (18) + Vivid Plasma Madame Dixie (Mini at 17 below) + Steaming Lord Cockswain’s Pith Helm (Mini at 14 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28614867 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987183850#!/compare/1479772800/1479859200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076562551#!/compare/1479772800/1479859200

X = 68

Vivid Dixie Mini:

Sold for 17 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28629195 - No visible B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197987183850#!/compare/1480636800/1480723200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144958678#!/compare/1480723200/1481414400

X = 17

Steaming Pith Helm Mini:

Sold for Ancient Codex Head Full of Hot Air (14.5) + a ~1 key skin

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28708987 - B/O of 14

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998934095#!/compare/1486771200/1486857600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149827277#!/compare/1486857600/1486944000

X = 14 (Capped by B/O)

Sellers:

60 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/Tqadw2V.png - 13 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561197964171516

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28759491 - little longer than the outpost listing, probably lowered at some point

http://i.imgur.com/GpOpXvs.png

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198047239660

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28616835 - 3 months

65 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28714622 - 1 month

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198084281951

80 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/WEb4qsJ.png - young, strange

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198011321852

http://i.imgur.com/Xw6NpjF.png - 9 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198086948995

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28769307 - 1 week, re-listed over ~3 months in total, lowered from 100 around a month ago

http://backpack.tf/u/76561197995190105

100 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/KmsYA3t.png - 2 months

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198125791160

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28755728

Offers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28671895

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198081134005

Sales at:

36 (strange)

49 (strange)

57 (2x, 1 strange)

68

68 looks like an outlier, and there are ages sellers for less. Excluding 68.

Rounding 49 to 50, and going with 50-57.

Normally, strange sales aren’t valid for a price suggestion. This is due to strange variants being seen as more valuable that non-strange ones. However, the high-end is being set with a non-strange sale (as well as a strange sale), and the low-end is being set with a strange sale, so this should be fine.