I'm concerned about sale 1 since the ids don't match and the histories are a bit off (the collector weapons histories). It looks like the vaccinator came separately from the other two weapons and at a later time.

http://prntscr.com/eoim8d

http://prntscr.com/eoimao

Worth confirming that sale.

It's worth looking at the dates on these, you sure have a whole lot of high "outliers" here (adding another older sale also)

Sale 0: 12/27-12/28

duped burning Pickelhaube (~90-100) + smoking Gym Rat (11):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019257028#!/compare/1482796800/1482883200

About 100 keys, sold in a day

Sale 1: 1/26-1/28

Maybe 40 keys, uncertain as you say. Ubersaw looks about right after skimming market sales, but the vaccinator and bison are WAY old prices (both over a year). Both could easily be quite a bit higher than their current list price. At a guess, the Bison is probably closer to 15-20 based on market sales and lack of listings, and there's a buy order on collector's vaccinators at 20 keys which definitely suggests higher than 22. I don't know if you can really use this one without better information on those.

Sale 2: 2/01-2/02

This is bulky yeah, but worth double checking. The Tesla Allbrero has sold several times since the last failed suggestion. Two most recent:

~45 keys: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077251918#!/compare/1490227200/1490486400 (seller has Bubbling Dapper @28 and Aces Allbrero @17.5).

~65 keys: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142853906#!/compare/1489363200/1489449600

Small parts in this trade add up to 22-23 keys, and the pure is 58 keys

170 + 2 = 58 pure + ~45-65 + 22 + Taunt

Taunt = ~27-47 keys. With 10% item overpay (worth checking even if not used in suggestions) we'd be looking at 44-64.

Summary: Supports not including 100+, but hard to say past there.

Sale 3: 2/21-2/22

51, but it does look like it sold to a quickbuyer, not totally unreasonable to take their word for it on the "quicksale" part. That said, yeah, there are a lot of "quicksale" taunts out there that absolutely aren't, and this might be one of those. If we knew what they had it listed for this would be a lot easier, but looks like they only listed prices on the classifieds.

Sale 4: 1/11-1/13

Like 130-140

Sale 5: 1/02-1/04

~100 from your stuff

Sooo... out of 6 sales, one is old at ~100, 2 are oldish but clearly at or above 100 keys, one is bulky but well under 100, and the two lowest are either outdated collector's or a possible quicksale. Honestly, it kind of looks like you can't ignore the high end here, but maybe cap, and figure out the collector's sale.