Counter.

Sale 1:

Sold for Orbiting Fire Dr’s Dapper Topper (Mini at 37 below)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1485043200/1485129600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104793633#!/compare/1485129600/1485302400

X = 37

Sale 2: (Dupe)

Sold for Dead Presidents Chill Chullo (28) + ~9 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115131622#!/compare/1485648000/1485734400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071075968#!/compare/1485561600/1485907200

X = 37

Sale 3: (Dupe)

Quicksold for 13 regular keys + ~5 keys in different kinds of keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28790489 - B/O of 17

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153432383#!/compare/1487548800/1487635200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059242909#!/compare/1487376000/1487635200

X = 17 (Capped by B/O)

Sale : (Dupe)

Sold for Green Confetti Elf Esteen (12.5) + Molten Mallard Katyusha

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28719693 - No B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1484524800/1484611200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111761941#!/compare/1484524800/1484611200

http://imgur.com/KjNyK7l - Credit to Pink Windmill Kid for the screenshot

Couldn’t get a mini on the Katyusha, however:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28668313 - Ruby was selling it with a B/O of 15 for a while.

This sale would end up being around 28 keys.

Sale : (Dupe)

Sold for Smoking Dr’s Dapper Topper + ~1 key in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097530311#!/compare/1485475200/1485561600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115131622#!/compare/1485388800/1485561600

This’ll be around the 25-30 key range.

Sale : (Dupe)

Sold for Aces High Towering Pillar of Hats + Dead Presidents Jumper’s Jeepcap

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058643564#!/compare/1486771200/1486944000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150159229#!/compare/1486771200/1486944000

This’ll be approximately 30 keys

Sale : (Dupe)

Sold with ~1 key in items for Blizzardy Storm Reggaelator

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150159229#!/compare/1487462400/1487548800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153432383#!/compare/1487376000/1487548800

This is gonna be way too low.

Sale : (Dupe)

Bulk for Disco Beat Down Rifleman

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111761941#!/compare/1487548800/1487635200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059242909#!/compare/1487376000/1487635200

Sale :

Sold with some amount of keys for Cauldron Bubbles Flipped Trilby

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133875209#!/compare/1484092800/1484352000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021272428#!/compare/1484092800/1484179200

Should be used on the Trilby.

Orbiting Fire Dapper Topper Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58b827d7c440455f721e071c

Sellers:

25 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/HpTzSR9.png - Duped

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198195951559

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28807586 - 1 day

32 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/yEcKGHs.png - 18 days

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198108148076

Sales at:

17 (duped)

37 (2x, 1 duped)

And estimated sales at ~25-30, ~28 and ~30.

Didn’t look too deep into the sales at 30 and lower as they were dupe sales, and would end up being excluded anyways.

Seller at 25 is duped. Not including in the range.

Non-duped seller at 32. Putting 32 in the range.

Going with 32-37.

Not sure if excluding all those dupe sales is the right choice here. Some feedback would be appreciated.