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2 year Old price
Sale # 1
Sold for a Blizzardy Storm Viewfinder ( 170)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153402711#!/compare/1490745600/1491004800 (you can also check the history of the other unusuals there, to check that they're not included in the deal)
= 170 << Seems too high
Sale # 2
Sold for Chiroptera Venenata Specialized Killstreak Killer's Kabuto(?) - Amaranthine Professional's Panama(54) - Strange Festive Professional Killstreak Flash Fryer Flame Thrower (Field-Tested) (1.8)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964393843#!/compare/1490918400/1491004800
Mini for the kabuto
The only recent one im able to find is a month old http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065512021#!/compare/1489190400/1489708800
Sold for a Sunbeams Tyrants (154)+ 17 = 171K
=115K
Sale # 3
Sold for 67 Keys (probably a quicksell) ---Seems pretty low even though it was a duped one!
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058864891#!/compare/1490832000/1491004800
[strike] ----------------------------------------------------------------- [/strike]
Considering the 3 sales , going with a price of 115K, since there's a really low one and a really high one which seem outliner. Any question, comment below!
Sold for 100 keys + Pro Ks Aussie Amby + Pro Ks Knife
[url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998501462#!/compare/1487548800/1487635200[/url]
Caps at b/o of 120 [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28672541[/url]
might add more sales later.
Didnt count that sale cuz its from february, meaning it might be outdated as The recent sales on this suggest....if you have any recent sales you can add, ill appreciate
Not bad for a first suggestion, but there are more sales:
http://backpack.tf/item/727947273 ----- 3 sales here (Blizz View is one of them)
http://backpack.tf/item/295222916 ----- 2 sales here (Chiroptera Kabuto is one of them)
http://backpack.tf/item/179594308 ----- 1 sale here
I would do some more digging here, since I bet more stuff was added with the Trophy in sale 1. You can pretty much ignore sales on duped ones since the clean one apparently has enough sales.
I was going to do it myself when I traded for it, but was kind of busy these past days. You should be able to do it properly with the links I posted above.
You can check yourself sale nr1.... If you look to The item history of The items there, you can see that The seller and buyer and noticie that The viewfinder was The only ONE traded for The belt.
The other sale you got there....is The same from The comment above this ONE....and i've justified why i havent count it
If you read the suggestion rules you will see that sales up to 2 months old can be used, so the sale Lights provided is valid. The Viewfinder sale wasn't a 1:1, and you will see that using the compare link from buyer's side. I'm using a phone right now so I can't show stuff properly.
And as I said above, there are more sales. I provided the links above so you can do it by yourself.
Sales i put in the suggestion are there to show a recent tendency. A 2 month old sale isnt accurate to what the item can be sold now. Already compared the link on the buyer's side and nothing, can´t find it. Cant track the sales from march you have in your burning Belt history nor the sales from Lila and BurnFatNoOil on one of the links you sent...if you're able to do so, post them here.
Again, sales up to 2 months old are valid (the one Lights posted is 1 month and ~2 weeks old). Your opinion here about "accuracy" doesn't matter. Check this guide for more info: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
Doing a quick check since I'm busy now:
- These items were added with the Trophy in sale 1:
http://backpack.tf/item/5334260657 ----- Aussie Black Box
http://backpack.tf/item/1103236422 ----- Max
http://backpack.tf/item/3854792178 ----- Strange Awper Hand
- Some kind of bulk deal with a Puzzle Pullover
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1490918400/1491004800
- Probably quicksold, can't say for how much
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055847835#!/compare/1489536000/1489622400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1489536000/1489622400
- Bulk for Peace Noh
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171447086#!/compare/1487635200/1487721600
Don't know if I missed something else, but you should have enough proof to work with now.
So if there was an aussie BB + Max + Stran awper hand added means the sale was a lot more than 170 = high outlier ; one bulk trade and a presumable quicksell (cant count those, since i have no chances of estimate the price they've been sold for) and in the peace noh mercy one, why doesnt the peace noh mercy seller have his name on the chil chullo history....?
Items were added with the Trophy, so the sale will be lower than 170 (probably around 130). The GE Chullo on the Noh sale does match with the seller and buyer (Shadow and DedAndrei).
You also undervalued the Flash Fryer here, since it's Professional Killstreak and you used the SCM price of the non-ks one. Assuming there aren't more valid sales, you have sales for ~105 (the Kabuto sale considering the Flash Fryer at around ~10 keys), 120 (the one provided by Lights) and ~130 (the Viewfinder sale). Honestly, I would leave both low and high end out here and go with 120 flat, which is an almost full pure sale.
Edit: actually, the Kabuto sale will be really close to 120 if proper values are taken. The Kabuto is 175 (Planets Dragonborn and 10 keys were added there, not 17 keys), the Flash Fryer has a sale around 8 keys on Steam Market, and the Panama should be closer to 50 (I rejected an offer of a Neutron DCO (55, but sellers for 48), which could be used as a mini instead of the 2 years old outdated price)
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Festive%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Flash%20Fryer%20Flame%20Thrower%20%28Field-Tested%29
http://imgur.com/a/kesoL
So there are sales for 119, 120 and 130. Going with 120 flat or 120-130 should work here I guess.
Alright, i'll resuggest