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Alright I guess this needs a range. Conservative drop.
For some reason the item page says this was updated 48 minutes ago
Sold with 364 Keys, a key in sweets, Pro Aus RL (52), Pro Aus Eyelander (31), Pro Aus Ax (7), Pro Aus Amb (17), Pro Aus Wrench (24), Pro Aus Med (39), DBD Pom (20), Aus Stick (13), Aus Knife (16), and a Batsaber (9):
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119421588#!/compare/1485216000/1485302400
= 532 Keys
Sale at 410 Keys, seller at 430, seller at 450:
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d496c440454ba407f4a9
Forgot to mention that sale 1 was for a Golden Pan, lol.
Wasn't there something about not using golden pans to drop an item? I recall a mod talking about that because pans usually sell for a lot more in items (or mixed)
The price was initially going to be a straight 410 Keys for this due to the seller at 430, but polar said to include the pan sale for a more conservative drop.
Also gpans are pretty much pure keys, so I don't see anything wrong with using a sale with those.
If there would be 5 sales for this hat at 700 keys, then yeah we could argue that the pan sale might be an outlier, in this case however the pan sale is higher than other sales so it should be fine.