Price Suggestion
~718 keys
sunbeams
Unusual Patriot Peak Sunbeams
64 votes up
4 votes down
Advertisement
Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Conservative drop from its peak


Seller at $899 (440 Keys), been a while:

http://imgur.com/a/j6TON

https://backpack.tf/item/4449099731


Sold for a pile of items (capped by B/O of 550 for 27 days):

http://imgur.com/a/dwdep

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d5a30e2cad01da4022f1#comment-58e6760d0e2cad43ef47412b

    dear god all the drops

      With the multiclass crate increasing the number of god-tiers in existence, stuff like this was bound to happen :/

      Congrats on 300 accepted! o/

        converting $900 to 440 keys (@$2.04) seems incorrect considering you can easily buy keys for $1.90 - 1.95, and no one except marketplace.tf and Valve can reliably sell for $2.04+.


          The seller is on marketplace though, a reputable site where people usually pay a bit more for safety, so the value of keys that is there is used.

            Except that it's not buyers paying for safety; it's sellers. Buyers are paying for convenience. PP chargeback scams are plenty common but sellers taking money and not delivering is unheard of.


            You could just as easily (and validly) say that Bob is giving a discount to avoid chargebacks and avoid having to sell keys after selling the hat, and therefore mp.tf shouldn't be used as evidence at all (which I think is Geel's opinion too).


            Bottom line: we have no evidence to speculate on who is paying more or less for what, and therefore no justification for using an inflated key price. All we know is that Bob is trading the hat for $900 USD. And $900 USD can buy about 465 keys based on spot prices.

              He cannot get 465 keys in spot prices because he doesn't get 900 USD after geel's site fees. I mean the reason keys themselves are 2.04 are due to those same fees.

                You're putting words in my mouth. I didn't say he could get 465 keys. I said that $900 can buy 465 keys or this hat.


                It's a mistake to bring fees into the discussion for this kind of pricing activity, but since you did, let's consider how many keys you'd need to sell on marketplace to buy this hat. $2.05 = 1.845 after fees. You'd have to sell 488 keys on marketplace to buy this hat with marketplace balance. That number is no more or less valid than OP's 440.


                tl;dr: fee-based market pricing makes valuations way more complicated. There is no reason to use it when no-fees pricing is available, as it is for keys.

                  "You're putting words in my mouth." I know better than to play the game, "Guess what I'm thinking." I didn't say that you said he could get 465 keys. You said he could buy 465 keys with 900 usd. True statement. I said he cannot get 465 keys because doesn't get 900 usd after fees. Also a true statement.


                  Speaking of mind-reading. We also aren't in the business of guessing what each individual buyer and seller values their keys at or guessing how much people pay extra for the safety of cash trading on marketplace. As marketplace gets more and more popular and easy to use, more and more people are just buying keys there, so we can't assume that someone who sold a hat there is going to buy keys from an outpost seller at 1.90. For the sake of clarity, we just take key values as they are on the site the items are traded. The difference there is within our margin of error in terms of estimated unusual value. I've always considered our suggested values to be +/- 15% of the "real" value, and using a key value of 1.90 vs 2.05 is within that margin of error.


                  You're right about the fees game being a mess - it works both ways. That's why we don't have people making ranges in suggestions like these based on every possible calculation from both the buyer's and seller's side. We just take the average price of keys which accounts for both.


                  Lastly, regarding the issue of using marketplace at all. We try to capture pure values on items. You know as well as I that pricing high tiers can be a shitshow. There aren't that many pure sales and it can be seen as unfair to drop a few high tiers using pure sales and not others that have their only sale as a huge overpay in unusuals. In my eyes, this is not an excuse to not use key or cash sales. It aggravates me when I see a hat getting a price of 1100 keys when it's obvious that no pan owner would accept it on their trade 1:1 and every hat owner would accept the trade 1:1. It's obviously not worth the same as a pan even though it's getting listed as such. As marketplace gets more and more popular and more people list their unusuals on their, more hats will get "fairly" priced at their pure values. We obviously have to be careful about using b/o drops and giving all hats a fair chance to sell at a high cash value but we always look at how sales relate to other sales, offers, and b/os in suggestions. Just look at this suggestion. It would likely not have been accepted at 440 flat, but factor in the 550 sale and it's obvious that 500 is a lot closer to pure value for this than 750.


                  @everyone: There's also a beams peak for 400 keys on opskins. Clearly suggested range is better than the current. As a pure value, it might still be too high.