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Vivid Plasma Killer's Kabuto
Nice but overrated hat. Let's bring this hat's price down to something more comparable to Searing Plasma's price.
Sale 1:
Sold with 5 keys for a Disco Beat Down Brainiac Hairpiece.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207940136#!/compare/1486771200/1486857600
Brainiac needs a mini but considering that there's two on the classifieds for 42 keys right now, this sale would likely sit in the high 30s. This sale took about a month.
Mini:
Sold for 38 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069559160#!/compare/1492560000/1492646400
Sold for a Death at Dusk Professor's Peculiarity.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147094422#!/compare/1490486400/1490659200
Most sales I found were around that ballpark. Rolling with 38 keys.
Sale 2:
Sold for a Smoking Killer's Kabuto, 45 keys, and some Earbuds.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076020691#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000
This sale took two months.
Sale 3:
Sold for some shit tier Heavy unusuals?
Looks like there's also a sale on a Medi Gun here that could be priced.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1492732800/1492819200
Sale 4:
Sold with a Haunted Ghosts Grenadier's Softcap for a Searing Plasma Modest Pile of Hat and 15 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031126990#!/compare/1492473600/1492560000
Sale would fit into the range even without minis.
Sale 5:
Sold for an Orbiting Planets Grenadier's Softcap and some Australiums.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072085386#!/compare/1492905600/1493164800
Credit to Alberny for this sale. Sale seems really high, not using.
Sale 6:
Sold with a Dead Presidents Old Guadalajara, 15 keys, and around 2.5? keys in sweets for a Burning Flames Pampered Pyro.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000869359#!/compare/1488758400/1488844800
This puts the hat around 52-72 keys. It's probably fair to assume that it would be closer to 70.
Apparent buyout was 100 keys? http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28802933 https://backpack.tf/suggestion/58b53fc0c4404531e479dedf
Sale 7:
Sold for 50 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057439647#!/compare/1488153600/1488326400
Sale 8:
Sold for an Isotope Festive Professional Killstreak Corsair Scattergun (Minimal Wear).
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044934255#!/compare/1492214400/1492300800
Currently sitting at 39 keys. I'd say the Pro. KS kit adds a decent amount here.
I'm going to go ahead and call the Aussies/Softcap sale an outlier and roll with 38-50 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28850673 - Buyer for 44.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28906721 - Buyer for 44
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26754729 - Buyer for 45
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28544131 - Buyer for 45
I think 50 should be your low-end here. Would love to know what LegoTonix's B/O was, because that looks like it would be the high end sale if it were capped somewhere. A mostly pure sale well north of your range shouldn't be ignored outright like that. Aussie/Softcap sale does indeed seem high given the sellers for less, but it also gives you a second sale with a very easily identifiable value well above your suggested range. Making the lowest/highest sales the outliers here makes more sense than cutting off everything on the high-end altogether.