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~300 keys
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Unusual Le Party Phantom Vivid Plasma
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Mini for Lemons


Sellers: http://prntscr.com/f7ojsd

15 hours @ 36

6 hours @ 38

17 hours @ 39

1 day @ 40

2 days @ 40


Sale 1:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115347965#!/compare/1494115200/1494460800

Sold for Haunted Ghosts Le Party Phantom (67.5) = 67.5 rounding to 68, capped by B/O of 42 Keys

B/O of 42, capping at that http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28876485


Sale 2:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136239758#!/compare/1487548800/1487635200

Sold with 2 keys for Molten Mallard Caribbean Conqueror (31) + Searing Plasma Handyman's Handle (15) = 44 Keys

B/O of 43, capping at that http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28791580


Sale 3:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177056801#!/compare/1488067200/1488240000

Sold for 6 Keys + Frostbite Connoisseur's Cap (45) = 51 Keys. Capped by B/O of 42

B/O of 42 Keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28793414


Sale 4:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309942981#!/compare/1488499200/1488585600

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Le Party Phantom (30.5) + 1 Key + Strange Killstreak Australium Frontier Justice (9) = 40.5 rounding to 41


Sale 5:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107166028#!/compare/1494115200/1494460800

Scammer sale, not using. Cash was involved according to a +rep on his trust http://backpack.tf/trust/76561198107166028


Sale 6:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137888552#!/compare/1489017600/1489104000

Sold for 43 Keys pure = 43 Keys


Sale 7:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150997435#!/compare/1489276800/1489449600

Sold with Morning Glory Backbiter's Billycock (37) for Amaranthine Gilded Guard (67.5) + 7 keys = 37.5 rounding to 38 Keys


Sale 8:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1489622400/1489708800

Sold for 38 Keys pure = 38 Keys


Sale 9:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970904315#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

Bulk


Sale 10:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1491264000/1491350400

Cant tell


Sale 11:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026526425#!/compare/1492041600/1492128000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346618954#!/compare/1492041600/1492128000

Sold for Blizzardy Storm Jumper's Jeepcap (14) + Green Energy Bloke's Bucket Hat (27) = 41


Mini for Jeepscap:

There was a sale for a ks or spec ks aussi black box which would end up at ~14, cant find the compare link

Another sale: http://prntscr.com/f7pa4q Sold for $30 / 2.1 = 14 Keys


Sale 12:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346618954#!/compare/1493510400/1493596800

Quicksold for 33 Keys = 33 Keys


Sale 13:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047573393#!/compare/1490918400/1491004800

Scorching Flames Tough Guy's Toque (57.5) = 57.5 rounding to 58


Sale 14:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175054886#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200

Sold with 9 Keys for Cloud 9 Le Party Phantom (50) = 41 Keys


Sale 15:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200

Bulk


Sales at 33, 38, 38, 41, 41, 41, 42, 42, 43, 43, 58

Calling 33 a low outlier, 58 high because of 5 sellers below.

Taking range 38-43


I"M FINALLY DONE. THE SHIT I DO FOR YOU LEMONS. CRAZY

Still, this was very fun to do

The 38 pure sale only took 3 days, unsure if it should be included here.

    Doesn't matter really as there are 2 sales @ 38 Keys. Even if this was to be excluded it wouldn't affect the range.

      The other sale with a value of 37.5 included an item worth 37, pretty much bulk at that point.

        2 sales at 38, good enough to be included imo

          It's not 50% of the trade. It's slightly more so I think it's fine.

        As of right now, there's sellers at 36, 38, 39, 40(duped) and 40. With that many sellers I wouldn't be comfortable with 41 being the low end, even if they're young, if they do quicksell that's still 5 more sales at 36-40, supporting the low end.

        This'll be fine in the long run.