Suggestion: Green Confetti A Well Wrapped Hat at 70–85 keys

Price Suggestion

~68 keys

g.fetti

43 votes up

18 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Mon, 15 May 17 23:38:46 +0000 by Marty Birdman.

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Comments

Sale 1: Duped Stare from Beyond Cosa Nostra Cap (90)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140973975#!/compare/1492992000/1493078400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961465738#!/compare/1492905600/1493078400

Sale 2: Sold for Sulphurous Razor Cut (68.5) ; rounding to 69

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075532147#!/compare/1493596800/1493769600

Mini Razor Cut: 68.5 keys suggested by Marty Birdman here: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5909c113e3387771d2720bff

Sale 3: Sold for Green Confetti Black Watch (20) and Honcho HeadGear (65) --> 85

Mini Honcho: 65 keys http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5918b5c3e3387774cf7260e8

Sellers:

~71 keys marketplace.tf https://marketplace.tf/items/30746;5;u6;

92.5 keys backpack.tf http://i.imgur.com/MsmO7sN.png

80 keys tf2outpost http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28803496 (2 months)

Sales: 69, 85, 90.

With sellers at 71 and 80; 90 seems high so I suggest a rage from 70-85

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27730274 - b/o: 80 keys (1 year)

2 month and 1 year old sellers at 80, anything higher than that are clear outliers

and marketplace.tf seller at $150 = 70~ keys is unsold for 5-6 months

this is going to be high

The marketplace seller has been there for 6 months.

Additionally - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27730274 - B/O 80, 1 & 1/2 years, nearly 2000 views

Another sale: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075532147#!/compare/1494547200/1494720000 - Miami Woodsman + Blizzardy Luchadore

Your sales above 80 are heavily countered by sellers. You have two sales for less to work with however. This should be somewhere ~70 ultimately.

How about a range from 70-80?

I don't think keeping 80 in your range is really any better than keeping 85. Either of those numbers is sufficiently countered.

They are hardly countered though because there are sellers at 80 and sales above that.

"Sellers for 80" is a gross oversimplification. It shouldn't take a year and a half to sell anything for 80 keys if it's truly worth 80 keys. And again, there is a seller asking the equivalent of ~71 keys for half a year on top of that. Including anything higher is not representative. There are sales above 80, and they are outliers.

Some people don't want to pay real world money on TF2 so the marketplace.tf seller is obviously at a disadvantage. The seller at outpost might simply not advertise his hat much outside of outpost. Just because he is incapable of selling that hat doesn't mean other traders are incapable to sell it for more than 80..

could argue that you could just sell a bunch of keys on marketplace.tf to get the money to buy the thing

With another sale ~70, it is best to call 80 and 85 outliers and do 70 flat.

I just sold this hat again for more than 85 keys. This shows that the hat can sell for more. Just because your tf2outpost seller is not capable of moving his hat doesn't mean others can't. Maybe he is putting not much effort into it.

I owned the hat like what 2 days? So arguing 70 would be a good price for this hat is bs.

What did you sell it for? Edit: Nvm. :)

We've discussed this among ourselves, and concluded that the sales and sellers for this hat just happen to be in significant conflict. While this isn't a clean update by any means, it is the best compromise available given what we have to work with, so accepting it as a conservative drop.