Sale 1:

Sold for 42 keys and a couple ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28810436 - No visible B/O

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1492646400/1492732800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257897985#!/compare/1492646400/1492732800

X = 42

Sale 2:

Sold for Purple Energy Bolted Bicorne (Mini at 26 below) + Steaming Master’s Yellow Belt (Mini at 15 below)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29183152 - B/O of 53

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095862827#!/compare/1494979200/1495065600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1494979200/1495065600

Yellow Belt doesn’t appear in either link. Here it is: http://backpack.tf/item/666339289

X = 41

Purple Energy Bolted Bicorne Mini:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/59244188c44045577b6e05ae

Steaming Yellow Belt Mini:

Sold for Blizzardy Swagman’s (Mini at 14 below) + ~1 key in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060867874#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158876366#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000

X = 15

Blizzardy Storm Swagman's Mini:

Sold for 14 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028861763#!/compare/1494979200/1495065600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385819765#!/compare/1494892800/1495065600

X = 14

Sellers:

40 keys:

http://i.imgur.com/QJAjXfa.png - 1 day, probably lowered recently

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198153806405

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29192305

Sales at:

41

42

Seller at 40.

Going with 40-42.