Suggestion: Death by Disco Smokey Sombrero at 52–70 keys

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28696420 4 months unsold at 72: 83 and 75 are outliers.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29183999 unbumped at 54

https://gyazo.com/004a9fae1f8fdccc2c6ebf3e1c48ee51 young at 50.

Sales at 38, 41, 46 pure fairly quick, 52, 70, 75, 83.

Giving the quicksale the benefit of the doubt, but including 52 in awareness of these much lower sales.

Let it ride.

Again, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28696420 is sold but not updated. Traded to a marketplace.tf bot and the item isnt in either inventory. Sold privately, so cannot be used to say that 83 and 75 are outliers.

Also again, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29183999 has been sold, shown by http://backpack.tf/item/4305866717

Can't pay attention to only the lows and disreguard the highs. Personally know the supposed C9 Western trader, he had mentioned an offer of 80+. Will confirm when he comes online.

I'm disregarding the highs AND lows. Have disregarded MORE lows than highs, with less reason to do so. You're SO biased it hurts.

You don't sell TO marketplace, that isn't how marketplace works. They can sell it ON for you for cash, but you still own it and can retrieve it at any point. It's unsold for long enough that I can discount those sales.

I don't care what he was offered, because this range is balanced based on the sales. 38-83 would obviously be unworkable, so you HAVE to call outliers. Please read the suggestion guidelines.

This suggestion is fine.

Quicksells for pure, non-current suggestions, and an unpriced hat are hardly true lows. The suggestion is not fine.

https://gyazo.com/cb82f33e962b6a53a12fce0a3a98f2a3

https://gyazo.com/aabb51330bb6c5715cb563b86731dd06

Offer from this morning. Most likely sold to the 50 key seller mentioned in https://gyazo.com/004a9fae1f8fdccc2c6ebf3e1c48ee51

1 week is not a quicksell (and I excluded it from the range anyway)

It was outdated at current so you use a mini-suggestion, and a full suggestion is just that but BETTER (really obvious suggesting stuff)

Open suggestion, see above (really obvious suggesting stuff) (and I excluded it from the range anyway)

Taunts are currently so overpriced we're largely not using them as evidence.

You're so biased it hurts. I'm done here. Any more comments will be wasting your time.

Since when does a suggestion retroactively affect the value of another hat, going as far as 2 months prior? Even if the price was outdated, hats are bought and sold based on their spreadsheet value. If a hat is priced at 71 at the time of sale, the value of the hat should very well be 71.

If taunts are so overpriced, why are you correcting hats instead of fixing the supposed problem that plainly exists? Until you can gather the proof and put your opinion in a suggestion, it hardly matters. You can believe that theyre overpriced, but thats just your opinion and the value is there until a suggestion is posted.

Dont call me biased like there arent any injustices going on here. Using post-mortem suggestions as absolute fact on the price of a hat is just stupid, even moreso when they arent even accepted. Anybody whos traded unusuals for more than an afternoon knows that a given hat tends to fetch less than its spreadsheet price in keys, and that doesn't affect the unusual-to-unusual or mixed price, so setting a key trade for 53 as the low end, a 16 key drop which will inevitably become the new "true price", isn't fair in the least.

This is the first time I've had any hat I owned lose a good amount of value, and frankly I dont care that much. My problem is how easy it is to make shit up, put a big block of text that nobody will read and some goons will vote yes just because they want to see their favorite effect get cheaper and they trust the guy with 2000 suggestions as the end-all-be-all on the price of something theyve never owned. How easy it is to say that one suggestion is "overpriced", and another one is objective fact just because. If 10 people had classified up for 10 keys less than the asking price right now, I wouldnt give a shit about a drop. Digging up unpriced and newly suggested trades from months ago to base a price is something else.

But what exactly is the part that is made up here? We as moderators ultimately assess the suggestion based on the information provided, checking the sales and considering the provided rationale (as well as blocks of text put in the comment sections).

There are 3 low sales excluded here, versus two high ones, which is a decent balance. the low ones are considered low as the 46 pure sale sold relatively fast, and the other two sales are even lower. The high ones are considered high as it has been unable to sell at 72 for four months. It having sold by now does not mean it has not been there for 4 months at that value (its still not greyed out, so if it sold, it was only fairly recently).

There are plenty of sales here to support the drop, and as you've provided, there are offers that back up 70 should be in the range as well. If the tipples passes, then I do not see any problem with this suggestion

http://backpack.tf/item/4370244675 shows that it was put on the marketplace.tf bot in February. Also shown in http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033688882#!/compare/1485907200/1486425600

Admittedly the fact that there doesnt seem to be a history of a sale on marketplace is strange, but it certainly wasnt unsold for 4 months as claimed.

It sold on marketplace in feb for ~62 keys. There's also an earlier sale at ~68. https://marketplace.tf/items/30682;5;u100

Both sales are in range. Couldn't sell at 72 on outpost in over a month, but managed to sell for less via marketplace. Not sure what your argument is here.

My argument is that 52 as a low end is pretty extreme, given so many 60s and above. Only below 60 sales are quicksales and unpriced/suggested hats.

The median here is ~60. More low sales are excluded than high. You've not really shown any solid evidence for why 52 is invalid, you've been arguing about why the high sales are valid.

The 52 isn't valid because of how the hat is being retroactively priced. If at the point of sale it was priced at 71, it should be considered a sale for 71, not 52 because a suggestion was made a week ago, especially since the sale was 3 months ago. Even if it was outdated, completely disreguarding the price at the time seems foolish. Same goes for the Woodsman, which is being priced at 38, despite the Insomnia having had a price of 60 that persists to this day.

If the lower end sales are being excluded as you claim, why is a supposed 52 being used when there are so many 60-70? It single handedly brings the average from 65 to 60, while there are at least 5 trades at or above 60.

The trade occurred 2 months ago, the hat was priced 1 year ago. Displayed prices are not accurate if they are outdated. That is why we require minis. The sales used to update the hat in question occurred 2 months ago also - it is the value of the hat at the time of the trade.

The value of the hat should be determined after the suggestion has passed. Say I bought a hat for 2 refined, and traded it for a 2 refined strange weapon. If the price of the hat changes to 1.66, does that mean that the strange should also be 1.66? Of course not, at the time of sale it was worth 2 refined and was traded for equal value. Outdated or not, it is obvious that the person who sold the Smokey for the Tippler priced it in accordance with the spreadsheet price at the time. It is impossible to know, without a very large amount of research, what a hat will be priced in the future, so it shouldn't be expected of the seller to know such a thing.

They're not determined after, they're determined by sales that took place at the time of the trade... ie the value of the hat at the time of the trade. Bptf doesn't determine or set prices, we reflect the market. That was the market at that time.

That is certainly not correct. Plenty of servers are equipped with the capability to pricecheck a given item using Bp.tf, and it is a bible for most people.To say that the site does not determine or set prices is insane, especially after spending the a couple hours selling my hat, having multiple be interested in a trade, then decline after the sight of the suggestion.

This still doesn't explain why the 52 is being used as the lower bound when the other two low prices are apparently disreguarded.

If that was true, why are the sales from that time lower than backpack.tf?

Plenty of reasons. For a person who is looking to move away from the game or get rid of a certain hat, they may choose to sell a hat at a loss to save themselves the trouble of selling it for face. The 46 and 55 key sales are quicksales, and at the moment there are no currently hung sales for those values. If the hat were truly worth that range, you would see multiple people attempting to sell it for that amount. Even with those reduced prices, they are still within the "backpack.tf laws" where a quicksell is about 30% off of the bp.tf price.

That's not what a quicksell is. Quicksells are defined by deviation from the mean. The mean is 52.

Im talking about the Tippler's. At the time of sale, the price was 71, which at a 30% discount, falls to about 49 keys. You can't use a couple of quicksales as the basis for a new mean, then say that the quicksale price should deviate from that new mean.

That is not how quicksales are defined for the purpose of suggestions.

Explain to me how defining a quicksale based on a mean that is based on a set of previous quicksales makes sense.

What previous quicksales? When looking at a new suggestion, we define quicksales by context - time it took to sale, where all the other sales are, current BOs and offers, etc, etc. It's not just "30% off bptf price"

Lets try it this way then

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355387742#!/compare/1495152000/1495411200

For Sunbeams Milkman (70)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057837559#!/compare/1495411200/1495584000

For Duped Pro KS Rocket Launcher with Exorcism (Marked, should be disreguarded)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355387742#!/compare/1494892800/1495065600

+14 keys for Burning Whoopee (59 using mean price of Woopee)

Much more recent trades. These are some sales that would very well define what a "quicksale" is.

Then counter the suggestion

Done & done.

The fact that it has been sold around the suggested low end value (or even lower) four times indicates that the current value is high.

About the tricorn situation:

Be wary that bptf aims to reflect the pure value of items. It is common practice that items currently overvalued on backpack.tf sell for each other, and it is therefore not that weird to see both hats dropping. The example you mentioned with the 2 ref hat/strange weapon does not work here, since the majority of the sales there happen in refined metal, and therefore said sales will unlikely be used for suggestions. Unusuals do not work that way.

The only reason the low end may be low here is because my concern is that the tippler's low end is too low. Another sale happened there recently, that would support the provided range there, based on the reselling values. Even if that requires to be fixed, the low end would then be 55 here.

Ranges are there for a reason. You yourself say we can't just disregard the high sales and only use the low ones. Similarly, we can't disregard all low sales and make a range with only the high sales. The suggested range reflects both ends.

I am not disreguarding the low trades, but there are marginally more high sales and the low sales are only arguably valid at best. I'm still waiting on Shaun's sale, but I have provided many more 60+'s that should very well explain the key sales as quicksales and the Woodsman as an assumed 60. A drop based on recent sales is definitely in order, just not a 16 key one.

The 2 ref example was meant to be a simplification in order to explain my position. I still cannot understand why quicksales are being used to make a new range, and why that range is affecting a separate that was sold months prior.

the woodsman is definitely not 60. there are 3 sellers well below that

http://i.imgur.com/nVhW4G3.png

Also to address the above:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157508353#!/compare/1495152000/1495238400 milksale was not an 1:1. 13 keys were added. The milkman is also duped and would require a mini

The whoop is being used there already. It is being updated and has 5 sales between 64 and 66. That is why it sets the low end there. Im not really a fan of that myself as it goes below a pure sale, but the sale in the comment section backs up ~50 as value.

At the time of the Woodsman sale, the Insomnia was recently priced at 60. Its definitely not 60 now, but at when the trade was made 60 was the used price in accordance with the accepted suggestion for a similar hat.

Above was my mistake, assumed that the keys for the Milk were part of the Tower trade. Wish it had been mentioned earlier, got baited into suggesting on a hat I only know so much about and made myself look stupid.

The woodsman is unpriced.

Insomnia is priced, Slumber is not. The two are generally priced close to one another, given their similarity, not unlike bliz/storm, so Insomnia's price was a basis for the Slumber at the time, given lack of previous sales.

That is not how suggestions work. Tier comparisons can be a means for traders to estimate values, but they cannot be used as suggestion datapoints. Especially since halloween 2016 effects are severely influenced by their absolute and relative rarity, these effects, while similar, are no reliable guideline for pricing, similar to how the first generation halloween effects are beyond compare, despite being or seeming to be of similar tier.

Looks good, upvote