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Only recent sale
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104872710#!/compare/1494115200/1494201600
Sold for 25 keys pure
Other sales are outdated or quicksells to scrap.tf bot
How is this sale not a quicksell? Sold for pure in 2 days.
It was also sold to a scrap.tf bot and now the bot is trying to sell it for 23 keys XD
This sale should be used for the Modest (credits Cashew):
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208062409#!/compare/1491436800/1491523200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054047907#!/compare/1491350400/1491523200
Other sale: Capotain + Miami Inspecteur were sold for 42 keys (part of the credits to Cashew):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355387742#!/compare/1496620800/1496707200
Keys were used to buy the Frostbite Dragonborn
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088822281#!/compare/1496620800/1496707200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29187821
And then the Dragonborn seller bought a Mallard Casemaker with those keys (and others)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975638235#!/compare/1496534400/1496707200
As you can see, all keys match with the Capotain+Inspecteur buyer and scrap.tf. They were just traded too quickly and 2 other owners don't show up there. The Capotain would end up at around your suggested price.
There's also this:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29225709 ----- 27 keys for more than a week.
Considering it has been bought from/sold to scrap.tf three different times in the past two months, it clearly deserves the drop. 25 is going to be close enough.