Just look at those classifieds.

SALES:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077598622#!/compare/1489968000/1490054400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990986202#!/compare/1489881600/1490054400

Sold for:

GE Tyrolean (fine at 55, 4 months old with a pure sales and sellers asking 55)

C.Bubbles Jefe (Outdated at 58.5, mini at 39)

D@D Heer (Outdated at 75, mini at 48)

Frostbite Toe (Outdated at 28, mini at 20)

Blizzardy Bone Dome ( https://gyazo.com/be6b515e5b11d1425bc75e8c629910aa taking 15)

NnB Glove ( https://gyazo.com/c39dbd5ea6b000cb27322a14de126420 taking 10, any change on either of these is probably within the realm of getting rounded out anyway)

2 keys.

= 189 (rounding to 190)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127915163#!/compare/1489276800/1489363200

Sold for Duped Moon Cannonball (Outdated at 280, mini at 217.5) + 12 keys

=229.5 (rounding to 230)

Jefe mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198338556449#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

39 pure.

Only recent sale.

Heer mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990986202#!/compare/1494720000/1494806400

48 pure

https://marketplace.tf/items/30378;5;u90

Almost 5 months unsold at $140, = ~68

Taking 48.

Toe mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119936533#!/compare/1494115200/1494201600

18 pure.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999059147#!/compare/1493251200/1493769600

~21.5 but bordering on bulk

Taking ~18-22.

Cannonball mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127915163#!/compare/1491004800/1491091200

Sold + ~50 keys in bits and pieces for burning cannonball (275)

= 225

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1487635200/1487721600

Tesla Kone (210)

Taking 210-225.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://gyazo.com/bfc37f445854c36c0b9c633b0e281186 Unsold at 160 for 2 weeks, young seller at 145.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28847894 160 seller was unsold at 200 before that.

I thin it's slightly too early to be including 160 as the low-end, but 230 is also evidently too high. 190 flat is the compromise.

Let it ride.