Sold just now for TW Spook specs (40) + FT Energy orb rocket.

- I don't think this sale is consistent with your suggestion, and your suggestion would drop burning in line with other effects which would be quite questionable to equate with burning

- I've generated both sales. Having been involved in both sales, no offence to you, don't think this pricing would be an accurate representation of it's true worth

The sale you're using here is bulky, and the sale provided in the comments definitely conflicts with it.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29198279 - B/O was 78 in the second sale

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1496793600/1496880000 - Caps at 78

Only other recent LED sale:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100007274#!/compare/1496966400/1497139200 - LED + Aces KE for duped PE Swagman + ~3 in sweets, bulky

Duped PE Swagman mini (for curiosity's sake):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344933095#!/compare/1495843200/1495929600 - 55 pure and 6 ref, took a month

^Wouldn't use that sale either, LED comes out ridiculously low.

I would go with 78 flat here. I think the sale you're using here is better used on the Ballcap. Could round it down to 120 and use it as a high-end.