all credits to Marty Birdman

Sale 1)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334200071#!/compare/1491436800/1491523200

sold for a sunbeams towering pillar of hats 113 keys mini below

Duped Beams Tower mini: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1491091200/1491264000 - Sold for Mallard Nunhood (mini at 72), Duped Scorching Hetman's (mini at 40.5), and ~11 in adds, 72 + 40.5 + 11 = 123.5, rounding to 124

Mallard Nunhood mini: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115699456#!/compare/1489881600/1489968000 - SS Wraith, Nunhood had 7 keys of adds, ~79

+

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313935698#!/compare/1491868800/1492041600 - Phos Yellow Belt + ~4 for Nunhood + 5, ~65

So 65-79 for the Nunhood.

Duped Scorching Hetman's Mini: 1:1 for a CHeart Fancy Fedora, ~45

http://backpack.tf/item/311910260 - Hetman's

http://backpack.tf/item/232962807 - Fedora

+

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154256189#!/compare/1491091200/1491177600 - Sold for Logo Wraith + 1, ~36

Taking 36-45 for Hetman's

^All of that gives us ~124

sale 2)

sold for a scorching airdog 155

http://imgur.com/a/yodtA

The Deep Cover Operator sale can't be used here because it was already used for the Deep Cover Operator. Omitting that sale. And the Scorching Airdog has an open suggestion based on more recent sales: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/591ead59e3387728fd043924

Taking 112.5 from that suggestion for the Airdog, rounding it to 113.

Ultimately the valid sales you're using here are 113 & 124.

sale 3)

credit to kazooie (gent)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1491696000/1491782400 - Vivid Stahlhelm (mini at 49) + duped Scorching Hetman's (mini at 40.5 from earlier) + ~25 keys in sweets, 49 + 40.5 + 25 = ~115

Stahlhelm mini: https://marketplace.tf/items/616;5;u16 - Sold for 109.86 / 2.1 (Marketplace key price) = ~52

However, there is a mature seller for 49 keys: http://imgur.com/a/bNFef

Taking 49 for the Stahlhelm.

sale 4)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168371826#!/compare/1494201600/1494633600 - DBD Cone for Chullo + 35 in adds, 167.5 - 35 = ~133

Usable sales at 113, 115, 124, and 133, with additional sales below that can't factor into the range but support a drop.

Final price 113-133